North & South Korean Troops Exchange gunfire

North and South Korean troops exchanged gunfire along their heavily fortified border late Monday, the first time in about a year such an exchange has happened. A Joint Chief of Staff official said in one report, "No one was injured in the incident."

Tokyo Gold Futures Down, GOLD spot playing in Same Ranges

Tokyo gold futures open with modest losses tracking lackluster overnight spot, Comex performances, with further pressure coming from some JPY strength. Prices likely to drift in absence of clearer forex, energy market cues, though ongoing Mideast tensions provide solid underlying support for safe havens like gold.

Right now Gold Spot is playing in the ranges.

It certainly looks that Gold currently would be playing in its ranges.
2 weeks back we mentioned gold shouldnt go above 645 level range before Aug8, It looks like we could see that.

If we look around for 2-3 days Gold has been playing at around the same level where it lies currently. 628 - 640.

There is much to see this week and next week, Loads of Datas, Loads of Market Moving Datas.

We shall Advice further.

Today we have some very Important Datas coming out.

July Month End Talk, Looking for August

The dollar ended with slight losses against the euro Monday but managed to carve out modest gains versus the yen on a day when overall dollar action was inconclusive and where trading activity was muted by month-end considerations.

Euro-dollar was trading around 1.2770 usd at US Afternoon time. Monday, up slightly from the 1.2755 usd level seen at the start of the U.S. trading day with the euro at the upper-end of its narrow 1.2741-83 usd US hours range.

Dollar-yen, meantime, was also near the upper-end of its U.S. hours range, trading at 114.70 yen after 114.19-114.74 yen intra-day.

Throughout the session, traders complained of extremely light trading flows, suggesting that the ultimate dollar change on the day was somewhat inconclusive, with markets hampered in part by month-end considerations and also by the build-up to a slate of market events that could lead to more volatile trading later in the week.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both due to meet on interest rates, the ECB seen as likely to hike rates by 25 bps but the Bank of England likely to keep rates steady.

Friday brings the release of the all-important US payrolls report, this one for July, with traders reminding that the payrolls report has been difficult to forecast of late and thus brings the risk of additional rate volatility that day.

Ahead of that, traders will have to deal with other key data releases such as the Tuesday manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the non-manufacturing index from the same group, due Thursday, as well as US auto sales for July due Tuesday.

For month-end, traders said many trading accounts appeared to be keeping a low profile, with the impact of summer vacations now also taking their toll on the number of players watching the market action.

Very Little Liquidity due to Month End

Today we see utmost All Currencies and Commodities Playing in Ranges

Very Little Liquidity today, due to Month End, And traders except things to be Mainly Quiet today.

Gold is playing in level from 628 - 635 level
Silver 11.26 - 11.39/40 level range
EUR/USD 1.2745 - 1.2780 level range

We would except day to end in this Manner.

Mostly Traders have in there mind, to hold the risks and wait Thursday (ECB Rate Hike) And Next week (AUG 8)

Iran Tensions

UN Security Council passes Iran resolution and gives Iran until
August 31 to suspend nuclear work or face threat of sanctions.

ECB Hiking Plans

ECB SOURCES say one more rate hike after Thursday is likely but a
further hike to 3.5% will depend on the economic outlook for 2007
--Some hawks want to move fast to a neutral rate to stem liquidity
growth, but do not have full Council backing
--Nor is there a consensus on where a neutral rate lies
--Staff projections due end-August could show a sharper slowdown in 2007
growth and perhaps inflation above 2% into 2008.

Gold/Silver Play in Range

Gold / Silver playing in Ranges.

US Data didnt effect much.
However, we dont have any US Data coming up ahead, giving such Big Importance.

We Expect gold/Silver to continue playing in Ranges

630/632 - Gold is building good support there.
If it crosses below that, we shall see Gold going towards 620-622 level range.

Since the Asia Morning gold playing 632 - 636 range during European and NY Opening.

We shall advice further, However, it looks today gold will play in similar ranges

Fed Pooles says :

Fed Pooles Says he is "50-50" on August rate decision.
Says inflation has titled upwards, but recent data shows slowing growth.

We could see loads of Ups and Downs in Gold and Silver.

Fed Pooles says :

FED President Poole, who is currently speaking on the chinese economy states he hopes "policy makers will resist the calls for isolationist response"
Responding to US Senators Schumer - Graham calls for trade restrictions.

Poole did not discuss US Economy Monetary Policy

632 level touch and Up

As we mentioned earlier at the Starting of Asia Spot Trading.
We mentioned 632 Level should touch and push up

632 .50 level was touched, and now gold trades around 635 level.

Gold was trading since Asia trading at around 634 range.

We expect Gold to play in range only.

We shall see how NY Market react.

630/2 level could be hit, And Upwards push Shall Emerge.

We Expect Gold to hit 630/2 level, And Grow its Support And push Upwards if it wants to cross the 644 level. Where Heavy Resistance lies.

Just few minutes back SPOT market opened for trade, we shall see Little Liquidity, However, further signs shall approach in few hours, and we shall Advice.

If 630/2 is passed by down. It will give further signals, that most of the traders tend to Close there positions this week, for a Big day Next week (Aug 8).


Keep Eyes Open.
We will Advice shortly.

Welcome to a Lovely Week Again... Lets recap Last week

Welcome Back to a Lovely Week Again traders/Clients,

Lets roll our mind with some recap of last week

Last week USD fell Sharply which indicated US growth was slowing more than expected due to Friday Data.
Which gave more signals for Fed to Pause on August 8.

Stocks were up last week, And Gold gave a Slight Push last week, but was Below the Heavy Resistance 640/643 level, Which it tipped many times, But made it back home always downwards, arising a new Buying Opportunity.
However, last week was a Scenerio of See and Watch the Market.

EUR/USD also tried its best to hit 1.28 level, but was unsuccessfull.

It looks like this week, EUR/USD would cross 1.28 level, arising signals of Fed to Pause, would give a Good Smash on USD, and eventually shall push Commodity Prices.


This and next week, Shall be a Very Important Critical Week, Many Datas to come, Many new things to come, and Next week, Aug 8, Known as a Big day, when Fed gives it command of Hiking or Pause.

We welcome to a Lovely Week Again.

Cheers.

Happy Weekend to All

Happy Weekend to All.

We will be with you next week.

Cheers.





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U. Of Michigan Confidence High then expected

U. Of Michigan Confidence came Better then Expected.
And pushed a Rally up for Gold and Silver.
The Spike it made up,
We will see Some kind of same spike down as well.

It comes to 638 level range, Another resistance lies.

And if crossed would come Again to 641 level.
And shall reverse.

We Assume NY traders shall book some profits soon, And will close there Positions before the end.

US Michigan Figures in Few minutes

US Michigan Figures in few minutes.
Expected is 83.0

After the GDP and PCE figures we did see Selling of USD.
However more Bad news could make the Dollar weak.

Currently Eur/usd 1.2745
Gold around 632
Silver Around 11.30

Market is currently Studying

The resistance level 633/634 wasnt able to crossed.

MArket is studying the figures.

We hope you did Book Profits.

Gold down from 633.5 to 630 level now. A little Up and Down. Traders Studying the figures, data.


Those who did Book Profits, should be end for today now.
GOOD LUCK

Bravo - We are Amazed in recieving Many e-mails of Appreciation.

And we Thanks!


We Shall Advice further. Cheers.

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We are Analysis Partner for Few of the Banks as well.

Book Profits

Traders who did enter at 626 level range, Should Book there Little profits now.
We Analyzed earlier, 625 range to be a Downward Push end of yesterday Down Push.

Due to Gold plays at resistance level 633 currently.
We see the Steam would end somewhat at this range

And a Pull Back would come.

We will Advice.
No Panick Issues Again.
You should Book your Profits, And be aside now.

Eur/usd trading currently at 1.2726 level.

Market is Studying the current data currently.. So Expect Ups and Downs.

Crude Oil Drops

Crude Oil Dropping as we mentioned earlier, due to Weak GDP.

Gold Buy

We hope you did go Long.
As 625 level was touched.
And we mentioned earlier downward push to end.

Dollar weakness all around the board.

GDP Data out

GDP Datas Are out

Wait for few minutes for Market to react..

Both GDP figures were weak then Expected.

Dollar Gets weak.

As we mentioned earlier Gold DownWard push should end at around 625 level.
It hit that level, And Whop now at 630

We shall Advice

15 Minutes - Data will be Out

In 15 Minutes we have US Datas coming in
12:30 GMT
US GDP Annualized Expected 3.0%
GDP Price Index Expected 3.5%
Personal Consumption Expected 2.1%


Gold currently at 628
Silver 11.29-30

Trade Idea.

Those people who have Short Already from 640, should keep there Short.
And Move there Profit order at 635 level Now.

Those who havent entered, we shall Advice to wait for the US Data, and react.

Gold now trades around 629 level.

As we mentioned 620/625 we feel Downward Push shall end.

However, further Signals shall come from the data

We will Advice shortly.

Crude Oil

Crude Oil trading lower before the US GDP, support at 73.50 (tested 4 times already), if it gets broken down in the case of weak GDP, we see second support at around 72 level range, where we should see some buyers coming in.

Market is Quiet - Waiting for Data

Gold right now Stands in a Bullish Level, Due to Being in Tight range since the Morning.
Market is just awaiting for the Datas, and shall react further.

Market is mostly Quiet, Oil is currently lower, in the same logic of economic slow down, though this scenario has to be confirm by a weaker US GDP.

We shall Advice further.

Crude Oil

Oil traded up 60 cents but remains in current range $73,50 – 75/bbl span. Prices were kept up by Nigerian shipment conserns and Middle East ongoing conflict.

No Big Movement Happening.

In our Earlier Studies, We mentioned gold to play in ranges for some time, before August, and there was a good drop back from 641 level

However there aint much movement occuring through European Traders, we feel they are awaiting for the US Data at 12:30 GMT.

We shall Advice further

Cheers

Gold Plays in Mini Range

Gold currently play in Mini ranges since the morning.
As we mentioned earlier, there should be a Solid dip coming, However, it was a very good pullback from 641 level.
However, gold is right now playing in the Support Area.
If that clears, we shall see gold to move towards 620 level range.

We have two Important Data coming today

12:30 GMT

GDP Annualized - 3.0% Exp
GDP price Index - 3.5% Exp

Gold is having Hard time to Pass Intra-Day Support.

Gold is having hard time to Pass by the Intra-Day Support as we mentioned.
Trying Second time now.
We shall see if it passes it.

Cheers!


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Downward Push could stop at 620/625

If Further Downard Push goes, below 630 level, We see Downward push to end somewhat around 620/625 Level.

We shall Advice further.

Cheers to All Traders, who did Short.

Success !!!

Eyes at 630/2

We Look at 630/2.
Being Intraday Support

Crossing that shall lead to further downward.

Analysis Approached - SUCCESS!!

As we mentioned earlier today, A Dip is necessary to come.
And our Analysis were right,
641/643 Bounce Back, was exactly what we expected.

We look for a Downward push a Little, for a New Buying entry soon Emerging.

And As we have mentioned always. Never Panick. Never Gamble with your Money. Trade Safe,
And its sometimes better to be at a side.
And Enjoy Watching :)

As we mentioned earlier NY Traders are Playing Tricky today. As we analyzed this Situation.

And we shall Advice Further.




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Heavy Push seems to look for end.

We feel the Steam looks to come in to End for Gold/Silver.
Market is still awaiting for New Home sales.

US Stocks.

US Stocks Trading has begun
And as mentioned we expected Stocks to move high

DJ is already 40+
Nasaq around 17

Best of luck to those, who did trade in Stocks.

Cheers.

Remember 641/643 Level?

Do you remember 641/643?
Again it comes to heavy Resistance.

At this condition Heavy Over Bought.
Remember, there isnt always One Way Traffic.

We see 641/3 touch and down, Where in many Phases, such level wasnt able to be crossed.

At some places Profit taking should occur. And a Dip is very near.
Becareful for a Dip to occur anytime.

Keep eyes at New Home Sales as well.

We wish luck to those people who did Long.
And those in the side lines, dont worry, a dip should come, a new entry level should emerge

Stocks look to go up

We Assume
US Stocks should go up today

EXXON has presented good returns.

Shall Advice further.

GeoPolitical Tensions

GeoPolitical Tensions as emerging right now

AL QAEDA LEADERS CALLS SOON FOR A MID-EAST WAR. AND TELLING ITS FELLOWS TO FIGHT EVERYWHERE.

Such news, could definately push the gold.

We shall Advice, if you are Long or Short.
Keep Stop orders.

NY traders Playing Tricky, Be Careful

No Panicky Issues traders,
Market is Just Adjusting itself a little.

We see NY traders playing tricky, And feel to eat money of various traders, We have seen such things happening many time.
Making price a little up, to make traders confused, and Whop Smash down. Eating all the Money.

Gold is totally In Over Bought Territory, So be Careful, Keep Stop Orders.

Short term we see USD strength
And a Slight Pull Back for Gold,

However Do follow the trend, And have some eyes strengthing towards New Home Sales Data.
And DONT GAMBLE, DONT PANICK!
Keep Stop orders

We shall Advice further, if any changes in trend.

However, Gold still remains under the Resistance level.

Another data releasing at 14:00 GMT

Traders Eye further Data coming out 14:00 GMT

New Home Sales MOM Expected 1160K

Watch for a dip.

Watch for a Dip.
We shall see Gold / Silver to take Slight Dip,
And due to Technical Reasons, there are Slight Chances for a Dip.
As Short term Dollar gets a Boost.

Eur/Usd came to 1.2715 from 1.2745 levels.

We shall Advice further.

Data is out

Data has come.

Dollar gets the Boost on strong Durable goods add slightly to gains.

Ny Spot Market Open

NY Spot Market Open.

Data coming in 10 Minutes.

Whats the Buzz in the Market.??

Bernake is caught in between a hardplace for slowing growth and inflationary pressures.
What could be his next move?
If he Pause rates, it saves the economy, but lets inflation spiral upwards
If he Tighten rates, it hurts the economy, but lowers inflation.

Today market is awaiting data, for further comfirmation on the Signs.
And we feel today the NY Gold/Silver Market traders and Equity Traders, will analyze furthe Beige Book Details and the data, for further movements.


Gold Stays at the next resistance level.
Where 2 Hour - 100 Moving Average lies as well.

EUR/USD playing in ranges. However, Look to buy the dips with support in the 1.2670-1.2710 for a test of 1.2850.
Look for the Data as well.

USDCHF lower on massive dollar selling. Continue to sell the rallies or a break of 1.2350 for a 1.2240 target this week

Equity market awaits for the Data today, However, US Stocks did pushed higher, but in the last hour of trading were FLAT. Undecided, on the Beige Book.

US durables goods at 12.30 GMT and new home sales at 14.00 GMT in focus. Tomorrow’s US GDP and PCE also very important as the market looks for a trigger in either direction

Such datas are heavily important for Commodity traders. And Various reasons, And Analysis needs to be undertaken, for further movements.





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Main Economic Datas

Time (GMT)	Region	Release	Exp.
06:10	GE	German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey	7.8
07:30	SW	PPI (MoM)	0.2%
12:30	US	Durable Goods Orders	2.0%
12:30	US	Durable Goods Ex Transportation (Jun)	0.7%
12:30	CA	Business Conditions Orders (Jul)	-6.8
12:30	US	Initial Jobless Claims (Jul)	310K
12:30	US	Continuing Claims (Jul)	2458k
14:00	CA	New Homes Sales (Jun), MoM	1150K, -6.0%
14:00	US	Help Wanted Index (Jun)	33
22:00	FR	Unemployment Rate	9.1%
22:00	NZ	Building Permits MoM	Prior 12.7%
23:30	JN	Jobless Rate	4.0%
23:30	JN	Tokyo CPI MoM	0.1%
23:50	JN	Retail Trade (Jun) YoY , MoM	0.1%, / 0.2%

Energy Futures

DOE numbers yesterday caused crude market to swing but remained within the range $75/bbl and $73,50/bbl to finally close almost unchanged in for the day.

The Gasoline draw was the biggest surprise and came out negative 3164k vs 0k change expected.

The Rome summit came out as an non-event where no clear decisions how to solve the ongoing Israel/ Lebanon based Hezbollah conflict were taken this increased once again fears for escalations in the conflict involving both Iran and Syria further.

As it seems a certain war risk premium already priced in current levels and only an escalation of the conflict should trigger levels above current resistance levels arr $75/bbl.

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Gold Support and Resistance.

Gold Support and Resistance

Resistance Levels
649
635
628

Support Levels.
616
608
593

Gold Futures Update

Gold jumped surprisingly yesterday after the dovish Beige book comments by the FED breaking the short term downtrend the 17th of July and went through 624,20 resistance spiking through the 631 /oz, now targeting the 637/oz level .

The Rome Summit turned out to be a big disappointment where no solutions to the ongoing middle East conflict were presented. As the summit kicked off gold dropped on high expectations.

Current nature of the Gold futures leaves us to continue treat it as an intra day affair where the volatility offers good trading possibilities both ways..

We are currently long, and looking to go further long from $630/oz ( $625 if seen) targeting 637 and 641,20 resistance levels

Gold should Technically correct.

Currently Gold has passed the 1 Hour Chart - 200 MA which lied at 630.65
However, its playing in that range, and lies around a Next Resistance level.
We Expect NY Traders to pull it back down, to technically correct, for new entries of Buy in Dips.

However, most of the traders are at side before the August meeting, and its a watch and see scenerio right now.
Current Situation emerges as Signs of Fed to Pause. Which is giving weakness to Dollar, and Traders buying Gold/Silver.

However, NY traders shall react further after the Heavy Datas today, and further signs shall Emerge.

12:30 GMT
Durable Goods Orders Expected 2.0%
Durable Goods Excl. transportation Expectd 0.7%
Initial Jobless Claims Expected 315K
Continuing Claims

14:00 GMT
New Home Sales Mom Expected 1160K

Equities Update

Last night's Beige Book assured the market that the Fed is halting their rate cycle and USD immediatly dropped massively lower.

The key take-away for equities from the Beige Book is that a) growth is slowing and b) inflation remains elevated.

The weakness in housing was once again mentioned with fewer and fewer regions seeing robust demand. This is the worst for stock markets but so far, the price action remains bullish.

But, if you consider the US market right now there's a distinct dispersion: everything growth related is being punished while defensive sectors are being bid up. Quite an interesting situation, we feel, and one that at least hints that the rally isn't as strong as concensus is starting to believe.

Indices indicated higher this morning on the back of Asia's advance. DAX seen at 5625, well above the recent range 5540-5600 and so if it can sustain this break, 5730 is the next major level. Both FTSE and SMI look stronger than DAX from a technical perspective.

Later on today, we have both US durable goods at 12.30 GMT and new home sales at 14.00. Tomorrow's GDP and PCE also in focus.

Gold Aims to pass 1 Hour - 200 MA

Gold Aims to Pass 1 Hour - 200 Moving Average, Passing that shall give further Signs of a Bullish Upwards.
Previous Actions can be Seen on the chart, as earlier gold was trying to pass this level, but couldnt suceed.

However, Gold is still in the range of Resistance level.
Technically Prespective, Gold shall take a Dip, However, todays Main Data, shall alert further signs.

We remain gold to play in Ranges. 600 (Physcological Level) - 640/5 (Big Resistance Level) before August meeting

US Dollar

The US dollar traded significantly lower on the dovish Fed's Beige Book, but despite this there is still mixed feeling in the market as the report showed production activity appeared to be expanding at solid pace and labor markets in general were tight.

We still believe that this report is just what Bernanke was looking for to confirm his own dovish view on rates.

The report showed many local areas actually with slowing growth and we believe in his mind this will only get worse as we head into the fall and will then in return keep a damping factor on inflation.

Also not to forget Bernanke main focus is to fight a slowing economy and not inflation.
We still believe that whether we see a 25 bps point hike on August 8th we still believe that the following statement by the Fed chairman will leave the market with a strong sense of them putting rates on hault for now which should send EURUSD well above 1.3000 on a 3-month horizon.

Gold mantains its position at resistance level currently

Gold Remains still at the 628 level.
We dont assume the right time for entry level.
As it lies at the moment in Resistance Area.

We Expect a Dip, for a New Entry.
Asia Currently reacting due to Dollar Weakness, and due to Fed Beige Report.

Dollar Weakness could lead Push to Gold

We dont see Middle East tension getting easing, If such tensions occuring further, and dollar continues its weakness, we shall see a push in the gold.
However, there is a Good resistance at around 626/628 range level.
Crossing that Emerges a new Push Upward.

We feel a dip shall occur, for a new Entry.
Asia shall play mostly in ranges.
European players shall await mostly for the US Data coming tonight
NY Players shall react further after the release of the Data

We Shall Advice further.

Gold currently lies at Resistance level.

Gold Currently trades at Resistance Level.
We see a little dip should come for a new entry.

614 level shall cross a downward.
626/628 level cross shall push an upward

US Dollar holds Steady

The US dollar is holding steady but showing signs of continued
easing as Asian session kicks off this morning.
Dollar-yen now at Y116.35, barely changed from Y116.31 in late New York trade while
euro-yen is at Y147.86 vs Y147.69.
Euro-dollar trades at $1.2709 compared with $1.2698 overnight.

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Management

To Short Term Traders

We Shall Advice you what next steps to take.
We have always mentioned never Panick, never take wrong actions.
Always understand its better to be sometimes aside, then taking un-necessary risks.

Opportunties will Always Flow in. Thats the Key for Success.

GOLD Since this week, Has remained below the resistance level we mentioned 626.
As we mentioned earlier, Gold/Silver now understand to be in Ranges.

However, we shall advice in few hours, After Analyzing, what orders should be placed.

Right now Gold is Above 100 MA - Daily Chart.

Current Level, gold Is Around Over Sold Position.

Current Situation Gives a Little Push on Gold/Silver

Current Situation Which Appears Gold and Silver to Push,
We shall say a Little Dollar Correction, However there remains Weakness in Dollar due to Today Fed Beige Book, As Market reacted.

Heavy Resistance lies around 626 level.

As we mentioned earlier, there were chances for Gold to hit 595 Level which was Technical Level
And 600/602 As Physcological Level.
Gold did hit the Physcological Level at 602 range And bounced Up.

Currently, we still feel a Little Dip Could occur, if Data which is coming out on THURSDAY, shall give further Signs.
As Fed is Data Dependant, However, currently the data which has been shown, gives a Sign for PAUSE.

For a Longer term Prespective Traders, we feel Current is a chance for entering Little.
For Weekly term Prespective Traders, we feel to await for a Small Dip, As Thursdays Data shall give further signs.
For Shorter Term Prespective Traders, we Advice to Await.

We shall Advice further.

Dollar Weakness gives Push to Gold/Silver

Due to Dollar Weakness, After the Beige Book. Gold has now Moved to Resistance level 626 level
Here it lies as Over Sold level.
We shall Present Charting Levels today, for which levels to Keep Eye, And which level to Enter.

Reaction on USD

USD weaker after Beige Book - Markets reading into the comments that a rate hike may be slightly further away. Stocks were down and then up, now falling back again.

Fed Beige Book Released - Summary1

Fed beige book also says on prices, "upward pressure" from energy
pass-thru persists. And wages are up for skilled workers and college
graduates.

Fed Beige Book Released - Summary

Fed Beige Book Report Summary:

"Report from all 12 districts generally indicated continued economy growth during June through mid-July, with numerous individual reports pointing to evidence that the pace of growth has slowed. "

"Labor Markets tightened further. Report sees weaker retails sales, expanding services, slower residential real estate" But it notes modest wage & price gains

On the real estate and construction front, residential real estate activity slowed, "with only scattered exceptions," the report said. The St. Louis and Dallas districts proved exceptions to the general slowdown, with home sales largely unchanged from last year in St. Louis and the residential market remained "resilient" in Dallas, according to the report.

"Demand for commercial space was strong in general, and the market tightened further in most districts," the report said

Gold didnt have Much Movements today.

Gold didnt have any Such big Movements,
Gold stood around the same level range as Tuesday.
Many traders await for the Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT, which shall give further Hints of what Fed Plans to do.

There are still slight chances For a drop back to Phsycological Level which stands at 600 Level.

However Since this week, Gold wasnt able to cross 626 level, which stands a good Resistance Level, we still assume for a little correction, However, Gold / Silver remains to play in ranges.
The Liquidity remains low for both, due to various traders/investors again stand on the side.

We shall advice further updates.

EUR/USD

The pair has Spiked Above 1.2630/35 offers reached 1.2640 highs before reversing quickly.
Next resistance at 1.2660/65

US Stocks : Dow and Nasdaq

Dow and Nasdaq have pared their losses at the midday hour,
Dow down just 17 points and Nasdaq off 11.

Inflation Discussion

A Survey was taken

"Does the July softening in commodity prices presage a
cooling of inflation risks?"

A) Too early to know - 17%;
B) No, commodities alone do not drive inflation - 30%;
C) No, inflation expectations still on the rise - 17%;
D) Yes, overall commodity price peak has passed - 13%;
E) Yes, more from cumulative central bank tightenings than commodity
price softening..23%.




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EUR/USD Price Action

Still stalled near $1.2620, neither backing away much nor
able to score significant gains beyond. Still good supply around, some
selling seen from Asian names in recent action.





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Crude Contract Up today

September NYMEX crude contract is upwardly mobile today, holding
gains of $0.85 and trading at $74.60 after softish inventory numbers
earlier today.



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Market Remains Mixed today.

There aint any Big Movements Occuring currently,
We feel gold to end at the current Level (617 - 619 Level)

As Market mostly focus on Fed Beige Book today at 18:00 GMT.

Market remains Mixed today.

Dollar turns weaker against European currencies as consolidation goes. However, Yen was even weaker as it falls sharply against Euro and Sterling, giving back all of gains earlier today. USD/JPY remains steady.

With no important US economic data released today, some focus will be turned to the Beige Book. Opinion is still largely divided regarding whether the Fed will pause in the coming Aug 8 FOMC meeting. More information could be provided on Fed's view on price pressure and growth moderation from the Beige Book which could give more hints to the market about Fed's current stance.

NY Market open

NY Gold Spot Market has begun,.
And they have pulled back the price a little,
We will see how they react.

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Management

Gold and Silver play in Same level.

Since Asia / European Morning Spot Gold And Silver are in the same level range.
We Expect NY to push them a little down.
Shall see how NY reacts.

We will Advice further.



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Crude Oil Edging Higher

Crude oil is edging higher following wire reports that
Nigerian militant group have resumed attacks on oil company facilities.
WTI Nymex crude oil is at $73.89

Silver Futures Support / Resistance level

Silver Futures Support and Resistance level

Resistance
11.025
10.977
10.933

10.889

10.885
10.881
10.833
Support

Gold Futures Update

Gold is continuing the slide started Monday last week where the falling channel makes lower highs and lower lows on a daily basis, market is currently subject for increased volatility but pressing towards main supports at psychological $600 and technical area $590 - 595/oz.

We prefer to treat it as an intra day affair selling from current resistance at 626,20 if possible.

Market outlook for the Gold is currently negative as we see Gold tracking Oil and the Geopolitical situation in Middle East.

Dollar in Demand

Dollars once again in demand, after better then expected US data which puts more doubt in the market concerning the Fed willingness to fight inflation.

Futures Market Update

Crude Oil

Signs of cease–fire talks in Middle East pressed Sept crude lower, 74.00 USD. Main supports could offer nice intraday buying, a break lower indicates tests of 71,20/bbl long term supports.

Gold

Gold drop continues. A break of current support at 615 should take Gold below $600 again where fresh buying should come in as seen before around $590 -595/oz

Bunds

Bunds experienced a strong closing last week and signs of recovery from last few months sell-off on ECB rate hike fears temporaily over.. .. US GDP figs and Beige book later on this week. 116,00 main support should hold, but selling intraday 116,37 target 116,20 Stops above 116,45

Economic Data Calendar.

Today's Highlights:

Time (GMT)	Region	Release	Exp.
07:30	SW	Trade Balance (Jun)	15.8B
07:30	IT	Services Survey (Jul)	Prior 31
08:00	GE	IFO – Business (Jul)	106.0
08:00	GE	IFO Current Assessment (Jul)	109.0
08:00	GE	IFO – Expectations (Jul)	102.5
10:00	UK	Industrial Trends (Jul)
10-11:00	PD	Base Rate Announcement	4.00%
11:00	US	MBA Mortgage Applications	Prior -4.6%
14:30	US	API/DOE Inventories (Jul 21)
18:00	US	Fed’s Beige Book
21:00	NZ	RBNZ Official Cash Rate (Jul 27)	7.25%

This and Next Week’s Highlights:

Date	Region	Release
27 July	GE	German GfK Consumer Confidence for August
27 July	US	Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, New Home Sales, Help Wanted
27 July	JN	Jobless Rate, Job to Job Applicants, HHold Spending, Toyko CPI, Retail Trade
28 July	US	GDP, Personal Consumption, PCE, Employment Cost index, Michigan Confidence
28 July	CA	Industrial Production, Raw Material Prices
30 July	JN	Industrial Production, Manufacturing PMI
31 July	AU	Home Sales
31 July	JN	Housing Starts, Vehicle Production, Construction Orders
31 July	IT	PPI
31 July	UK	M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals
31 July	E-Z	A String of Economic Climate Indicators
31 July	US	Chicago PMI
31 July	CA	GDP

Equity Update

The rally initiated on Monday continues and the broader market is looking upward this morning.

Earnings are beginning to do their part and the Middle East is developing into a non-story.
Then there's the macroeconomic picture. Clearly, the market has decided that despite major warning signals, especially with regards to the US housing market, asset prices will stabilize and perhaps even advance from here. We never ignore the price action, i.e. what the market is telling us, but we're obviously surprised by this week's advance in both Europe and the US. That said, seeing a rally that really isn't supported by macro data nor earnings and with risks of re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, be carefull of going all out long in this sort of market.

In the short-term, however, look for DAX to test 5728, FTSE 5879 and Stoxx50 3670.

On tap this morning, we have German IFO at 8.00 GMT with Fed's Beige Book coming out at 18.00 GMT.

Corporate News:

Merck may rise after it said net income jumped to 528.5 million euros ($664.2) from 248 million euros a year earlier, the company said in a statement on its Web site today. This almost matched the 529 million-euro median estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales rose 4.1 percent to 1.52 billion euros.

Casino, France's fifth-largest supermarket operator, said after European markets closed yesterday that second-quarter sales climbed 16 percent to 6.12 billion euros ($7.7 billion), helped by gains in Latin America and the U.S. International sales jumped 61 percent to 1.8 billion euros.

JCDecaux SA may decline. The world's second-largest outdoor advertising company said second-quarter sales rose 11 percent to 503.6 million euros, less than the 505.5 million-euro median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

Gold update

Gold In Asia Trading was at 614 Level
Asia Market closes and brings the prices at 617 range.

Overall, Technically, we see gold to hit around 595 level, for a bounce back.
As we see a Bearish Bar Occuring, and as we mentioned we feel Wednesday/Thursday it should touch..
We shall Advice ASAP, if the gold sentimence changes.

Europe, NY traders are likely to play in ranges.

More information shall be provided in few minutes.




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Indian Rupee - Forex Update

The Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates by 25bp to 6.00% yesterday, ignoring 11th-hour dovish comments by government officials and generally in line with the market's expectations. There were worries, following comments from Fin Min Chidambaram that inflation expectation is already under control that the government could have pressured the central bank to not hike despite the rather elevated inflation numbers. The move we think would have reduced the risks of the central bank falling behind the curve in handling inflation rate. The overall tone of the policy statement is considerably hawkish and, our economist believe, does not indicate an exit from the tightening cycle. The RBI has stressed that the policy stance would be to maintain inflation in the 5%-5.5% band and growth considerations should not take precedence over price stability. The RBI identified strong demand condition and the significant misalignment of domestic fuel prices with global prices due to subsidies as key risks. It also appears that the RBI's concern over the strength of domestic demand will only ease when credit growth starts to move into its comfort level of 20% a year. At this stage there are as yet no real indicators to point to easing inflationary pressure, both from the demand- and supply-side factors. With the Fed likely to pause at 5.5%, the India's rate premium over the US is likely to remain at least 50bps or higher. We expect the authorities to keep the USDINR below the 47.00 mark though the downside may also be similarly limited given the government's recent eagerness to slow down the INR strength at any level. We reiterate our 1-month INR forecast of 46.50.

Forex Daily Trade Idea.

EURUSD sold-off heavily yesterday on US data last line of support intra day is 1.2555 61% retacement (from 1.2460-1.2710), a break below to accelerate the downside and target 1.2480-00 short term. For the upside 1.2625 break is needed to improve the short term bearish bias.

GBPUSD lower on the stronger dollar move across the board, but fell short of trading through 1.8385 50% retracement, Look to buy on dips as long as the mentioned support remain intact with a tight stop for a test of 1.8480-90.

USDJPY remain choppy and today we look for a break today of either 117.35 to target 117.90 or a break of 116.80 to target. 116.15.

EURJPY lower on EURUSD cross selling through the Asian session, but the pair remains short term bullish above the 146.85-95 support area. buy the dips for a retest of 148.00 in the upcoming week.

USDCHF higher on back of US data. We will trade this pair with an intra-day neutral stand and look to play the 1.2450-1.2590 range.

AUDUSD keeping the bullish momentum on next week's possible rate hike. Look to buy the pair on dips with a stop below 0.7500 targeting 0.7650.






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Forex Market Update

JPY

Well it looks like we are back playing Rate Rhetoric game in Japan. This time Central Bank Board Member Suda said the BoJ is “not behind the curve” and “rates will likely stay low for some time.” This does not’t reflect well on the creditability of the BoJ and the markets continued to sell JPY. Merchands Trade Balance came in slightly lower then expected as import prices in fuel cost and industrial inputs creep up. We still see weakness in the JPY as traders see growth opportunities in other regions and interest rate differential make the JPY the obvious funding choose.

AUD

Australian Consumer Prices blew right by analysts expectations hitting 1.6% QoQ and 4.0% YoY. Much higher then the RBA’s comfort zone of 2-3% inflationary target. This new figure has traders speculating on further rate hikes past next week’s .25bp% tightening to 6.00%. We see continued strength in the AUD and believe it be on the best near term trade.

Crude Oil Updates

Prices were little changed in Asia as the market awaited
weekly US inventory figures due tonight for its next lead. New York's
main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in September, was last
traded up $0.04 at $73.79 per barrel compared with $73.75 in late US
trades overnight.

Gold in RED.

Dear Traders,

As we mentioned Yesterday, Gold would be going in RED today, and we see it aheading towards 600.
We shall Eye for 595.

Cheers.

Fed Looks Confused

Economists suggest "the Fed isn't sure what it is going to do next," though the consensus seems to be for an Aug rate hike. They see both inflation and growth risks.

DOLLAR IN GAINS

In NY afternoon trading, the dollar is holding gains sparked by safe-haven flows and better-than-expected US data and is sticking close to its intraday highs.
The euro is at $1.2575 from $1.2629 late Monday, according to EBS.
The dollar is at Y117.28 from Y116.82, while the euro is at Y147.48 from Y147.53.
The dollar is changing hands at CHF1.2535 from CHF1.2464 and sterling fetched $1.8405 from $1.8503

Daily Chart Begins Bear Bar.

Eventually Daily Chart has now Started BEAR BAR.
As we eyed earlier 592.
We still feel there are Solid chances to hit 592

We shall Advice further of Any Such chances.

However It has crossed 614 support

Dollar Getting Strong, due to Data release.

614 level crossed.

614 level CROSSED,
We Are Happy on our Analysis, And have helped just now numerous traders on current situation.
We hope you did follow our Analysis, And have grasped Both Ups and Downs.

Thats Trading, Thats Our Analysis, And we are here to Help YOU as our clients.

Cheers.



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Eyes at 590/592

We still have our Eyes stick to 590/592 Currently.
We feel tommorrow/Thursday it should touch
We dont see Any Such HAPPENING Movements currently.

We will Advice further if any Such thing changes.

Gold Still under resistance level

Gold is still Under the resistance level - 625 - since the Morning
Crossing that would lead a Push.

However, Currenly Gold is in Between

614 and 625

Both good Support and Resistance areas.




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Data Comment

Both the US Consumer Confidence and Home Sales came higher than Expected.
Dollar gets Slight strenght
Stocks Trim the losses

US Stocks

We feel the Indexes will start in Red.
Wont have the rally like yesterday

It was a Good Gain Yesterday for Stocks.

We shall see how DJ and Nasdaq Goes, however we feel it should be in RED today.

Gold Trade Idea.

Trade Idea:

If 614 Is Passed it will go further more Down
Eyes on Data As well
NY has started to Short sell Slightly

Gold wasnt Able to cut by the Resistance level.

MidEast News Update

Hamas Officials Says Israeli Soldiers return on Prisoner Swap

Interesting things going on.

Questions might be clicking in your Mind.

Will Hezbollah free the Soldiers?
Are really Soldiers Alive?
Will Saudi Start the war?
etc..etc..

Main US Data

Dear Traders/Client

Main US Data coming at 14:00 GMT

Consumer Confidence 104.1 Expected
Existing Home Sales 6.60 M Expected

If both comes weak then Expected, will make Dollar Slight weaker, And Will eventually give Slight push to Gold and Silver.

BIG NEWS

HEAVY NEWS JUST CAME

SAUDI KING JUST WARNS OF MIDDLE EAST WAR
IF ISRAEL DOESNT STOP ITS ATTACKS ON LEBANON, PLASTENIANS.

Market Recap, And What Market is Waiting for?

The dollar was marginally higher after weakening in Asian trade, but continued to trade within tight ranges as the market awaited US data this afternoon for further direction.

The dollar had dipped overnight following strong rallies on Asian stock markets and a report by China's National Bureau of Statistics calling for the pace of diversification of its foreign exchange reserves to be speeded up in order to hedge against dollar losses.

Once US interest rates peak, the issue of financial imbalances is likely to come back to the fore.

For today, however, we focus on US consumer confidence and existing home sales data this afternoon. Market players are expecting a weak reading for both data, which should provide further clues on the extent of the slowdown in the US and its implications for US interest rates.

Meanwhile, however, European data are also showing signs of easing, with tomorrow's key Ifo survey of German business confidence expected to fall from its recent 15-year highs.

Yesterday's Belgian business confidence indicator -- often seen as a good pointer to the Ifo index -- fell below expectations, while today Italian business confidence also came in weak though French confidence strengthened.

Weaker confidence data, however, is unlikely to be sufficient to prevent the European Central Bank from raising interest rates on Aug 3, particularly as money supply and credit growth data on Friday are of greater importance to the ECB,

EQUITIES UPDATE

A very impressive rally has the entire market looking albeit only in the short-term. These are the sort of rallies when longer-term direction is down. Europe's index charts look a lot healthier than S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 but despite yesterday's move, key resistances remain in place. Standing out is SMI. It'll open at key resistance 7775 today and looks to push higher still.

For DAX, there's still plenty of room to cover before it reaches 5788. A close above this level is needed to improve the technical outlook.

Condi Rice's trip to the Middle East coupled with some hugh M&A deals and at last some real strength in terms of earnings were all helpful to the rally that exploded as the US opened.
It's was basically one-way traffic throughout the session as momentum buyers flocked to the market.

Though a rally like this needs to be respected it's worth noting that market breadth wasn't particular impressive and as you know we're still cautious of trading the upside within the current setup.

Still, we'd prefer easing into buy-dips trades today.


Today's key earnings reports:

S: 3M (1.07), Altria (1.37), AT&T (0.53), Du Pont (0.93), McDonald’s (0.59), Amazon.com (0.07), Lockheed (1.16), UPS (1.00), XTO Energy (0.83).

EU: Telecom Italia (0.05), Endesa (0.64), ST Micro (0.18).

Energies Futures Update

Crude Oil trading sideways for the last three sessions in a 73.50/75.20 range found some support from the National Hurricane Center of a tropical disturbance that could eventually strengthen and affect the refineries from the Texas region. We feel that more upside are possible with the middle east crisis and with Crude Oil trading above $75.00 this morning a target at 76.80 is in the cards depending on tomorrow’s inventories. We stay carefully bullish.

Natural Gas jumped 7.5% yesterday essentially on hot weather forecast and on potential hurricane risk in the coming weeks. We still consider this advance as a bear market rally even if the close above $6.50 level brighten the picture short term.

Metal Futures Update

Todays MAIN US ECONOMIC INDICATOR WILL Whether Boost the Gold/Silver or Weak them

Main Eye on US Existing Home Sales.

METAL FUTURES UPDATE

Precious metals continued to consolidate yesterday and partly reached the $600 psychological support on Gold. Today a weak US Existing Home sales figure could add some pressure on the dollar and boost precious metals. For this morning session the 623/625 level is resistance and support at 615/618.

Silver trading in a flag well supported at $10.80 and capped at 11.15; If broken up $11.60 is target.

Forex Market Update

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

USD

As from our headline we are debating how long the dollar can stay supportive after Bernanke's testimony last week. he suggested that the present rate hike cycle has not yet had an impact of the US economy and that his stand is that he seems more concerned with a possible slowdown in the US then fighting inflation. If this is right we should see a significant slowdown in US house prices which has been supportive form the dollar through the last couple of years along with higher rates. So if this is actually the case which we believe there should no stopping a weaker dollar looking 3 months ahead.

CAD

CAD continued to disappoint the market with a lower then expected Retail Sales figure which came in at MoM -0.6% vs. 0.0% forecasted. These weak figures triggered a sell off in CAD and sent the USDCAD through the significant 114.00 lvls. For CAD bulls there seems to be no relief in sight as last week CPI figures eliminated the BoC tightening outlook in the near term and Canada’s economy slows. In this thin calendar week expect continue CAD weakness unless Wednesday Industrial Product Prices comes out higher then forecast.

Gold Correcting a Little.

Gold is Correcting a little
We are seeing right now So much Ups and Downs is Happening, Meaning heavy trading happening, this is just a Sign of People closing positions.
We shall Say Mostly Intra-day Traders.

There are various places where heavy resistance lies.
Gold shall move downard at the level we mentioned and should push up

We are analyzing further, still bearish sentimence.

We shall advice not to enter right now, Or Panick

We will Advice ASAP, if anything changes.

EUR/USD -

Its Drifting lower, to the $1.2620 area but hard to find any
significant volume in the move,
Some London fix demand for dollar appears to be behind the move.
Pair in close proximity to morning lows at $1.2610 and bids have been discussed
in that area. Needless to say, move below there runs the risk of stops
from intra-day accounts.

DOW JONES AND NASDAQ SKYING UP

ALL THE WAY UP
AS WE MENTIONED EARLIER, BOTH DOW JONES AND NASDAQ WILL MOVE HIGH

ITS A GOOD GAIN

Dow is up 150, Nasdaq is ahead by almost 36

CHEERS.

US Stocks are in GAINS, as we mentioned earlier

As we mentioned Earlier Regarding US Stocks before US Opening.
That today Both NASDAQ and DowJones will go up
We hope you did trade. As our Analysis were confirming it.

Dow gains have extended to 105 points now while Nasdaq is
up 22.

Good GAINS.

We are happy to help the traders Again.

USD/CAD Approaching Key Resistance.

USD/CAD is approaching key Resistance levels at 1.1465/75, the former is the 200 day Moving Average & latter is a 1 year resistance line.
Look for a fade here, as both the hourly & daily studies are overbought territory and showing bear - divergence signals.

Gold Crosses 608

Gold has Crossed 608 Level - The Heavy Support.
Now Eyes at 600
You should have Sold, Close your positions.
As we mentioned earlier.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL STUDY TIME

5 & 21-day MA Confirm Dead-Cross

RES 4: $78.40 Record high & August contract high 14 July
RES 3: $76.80 Daily low 17 July
RES 2: $75.97 Daily high 19 July
RES 1: $75.00 21-day moving average

LAST PRICE: $73.90

SUP 1: $73.35/45 55-day moving average & 61.8% of $79.86 to $69.50
SUP 2: $72.50/55 Daily low 27, 28 June
SUP 3: $71.90/95 100-day moving average & 76.4% of $79.86 to $69.50
SUP 4: $71.40 Daily low 26 June

The 5 & 21-day moving average's have confirmed a
"dead-cross" and price action is now threatening to break below the
55-day ma at $73.35. Below here, the risk is on a move to
$71.90/95, where former is the 100-day moving average & latter the 76.4%
of $79.86 to $69.50 move.

Gold didnt pass 608 - await for it.

DONT PANICK.

GOLD DIDNT PASS BY 608 YET. SO AWAIT FOR IT.

WE WILL ADVICE FURTHER.


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US Stocks Look to move up today

Those who are in Stocks trading.
We think DOW and Nasdaq to move up today with Solid Gains.

Cheers



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Euros Technical Game today

The euro is trading at the $1.2633 technical level. That support is a potential intraday low. However, the earlier-failed test of the $1.2720-$1.2765 resistance band may have been the chart setup for a dip to $1.2520.
Decisive dollar trading above Y116.70 would be the signal for a roughly one-yen move to Y117.74. On the other hand, a dollar downturn would be targeting Y116.20.

Good Up and Down Happening.

Heavy Up and Down happening at 608 Level
Good Support there.

Wait for it to cross.

Still its above 608

EUR/USD

Its Edging higher in recent trade, lifting to $1.2640 area in
current trade in fairly quiet conditions.
Overnight sell-off saw the euro skid to $1.2610 level in European trade before the pair regained
any poise, with talk of sovereign demand and longer-term fund buying
said to have provided the bid tone.
Bids said to extend to $1.2595 or so, stops a risk below there as the lower end of the recent range
remains the zone to play in.
Offers a top $1.2660 should the rebound extend.

Gold Trade idea 1

If Passes 608
Reverse your Position, or Close, Depending on your Protfolio.

It will head 600 And then 592 level

Gold Trade idea

Remember clients/Traders,

Dont Panick Sell or Close Position
The levels we have mentioned, when it passes that level, then close or Reverse your position

But the Downard Push is Heavy

I think it will reach the level we mentioned 588/592

NY SPOT Market opens

NY Spot Market has Started.
We will advice in few minutes what to do.

Gold Approaches 50% Retracement Level.

We have Just done a Long term Analysis.
We feel Gold will be hitting 588/592 Level.
And then Bullish Trend will start.
We have Looked at all Studies, And right now Bearish Sentimence Approaches.
We will wait how NY Market reacts today.

Gold right now looks Approaching 50% Retracement level at 609.92 level.
Which if Passed, would go towards 588/592 level where Strong Support lies and that level, we feel a Pump Up

Overall Heavy Resistance level is 640/646 range

We will Advice Further.

MAIN KEY : AWAIT TO SEE NY MARKET REACTION




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Metal Futures Update

Gold continued to slide this morning following up on last weeks massive drop of over 60 USD where market regarded Gold too expensive and sellers entered.. As the middle East conflict seems to be kept local without any significant involvement from neither Syria nor Iran plus the beginning diplomatic efforts leaves us o believe that Gold will continue to drop. August contracts broke short term supports at 615 this morning and opens up testing the psychological $600 and technical areas $590 -595/oz later on this week.. However last weeks volatility should remain with big swings both ways.



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ENERGY FUTURES UPDATES

The possibility for cease fire talks and diplomatic efforts in the Israel - Hezbollah conflict set crude oil prices under pressure this morning as U.S Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice arrived to Jerusalem. Positive comments from Syria supported the idea of an international buffer zone in Southern Lebanon. September Crude oil came off 50 cents this morning and currently resting just above the 73,80 support. A break here would indicate oil back to old supports at $72,50/bbl and $71,20/bbl resistance levels at $75/bbl and $75,95/bbl

Comments from Saudi arabia oil prices too high at current levels in a strive talking down the market was most likely regarded as an empty statement, and focus were entirely on the Middle East conflict.




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Gold Reached our Target level

Gold Reached our Target level
610/615.
It went 612 and then Bounce Back

As we did mentioned earler, that 610/615 level and Bounce up.

We are looking further right now.



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EQUITIES ANALYSIS

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Equities Analysis

Except for further escalation in the Middle East, Dell's announcement on Friday got all the attention over the weekend. The company is no longer the high-flier that it once was as HP and others are eating into Dell's market share. Plenty of big Nasdaq names continue to break lower and naturally, this sets the tone for the broader market and impact Europe and Asia as well.

On Thursday, we said that the Bernanke-induced rally on the day before looked a whole lot like a June 29th FOMC redux and our call proved correct: Thursday and Friday were both losing days and the weekly close on Friday doesn't bode well for the short-term outlook. Then there's the broader technical backdrop: we're seeing severel dead crosses form on the major indices (50- and 200-day moving average crossover) and considering the fierce rejection following rallies, it's as clear as ever that the market is focused on selling not buying. The earnings season was supposed to bail out those who kept on their longs through the month of May. Well, that hasn't happened and so now the market looks to accelerate lower.

Another major week in terms of earnings, with Thursday toppingt the list. Here's this week's key releases (Bloomberg estimates as of July 21st):

Monday

US: AXP (0.74), MRK (0.66), TXN (0.47), SNDK (0.44)
EU: Reckitt Benckiser (22.53)

Tuesday

US: 3M (1.07), Altria (1.37), AT&T (0.53), Du Pont (0.93), McDonald’s (0.59), Amazon.com (0.07), Lockheed (1.16), UPS (1.00), XTO Energy (0.83).
EU: Telecom Italia (0.05), Endesa (0.64), ST Micro (0.18)

Wednesday

US: Boeing (-0.22), GM (0.52), Conoco (2.80), Symantec (0.21),
EU: Banco Bilbao (0.34), Glaxo Smithkline (23.83), Serono (11.33)

Thursday

US: XOM (1.64), Phelps Dodge (4.02), Monster (0.30)
EU: Telefonica (0.24), Siemens (0.95), Repsol (0.70), Banco Santander (0.27), Alcatel (0.12), Daimler-Chrysler (0.66), Volkswagen (2.02), Astra Zeneca (0.92), Centrica (10.66).

Friday

US: Centex (1.36), Chevron (2.21)
EU: Linde (0.97), TeliaSonera (0.83), Gamesa (0.19).

As far as macro data goes, in focus will be tomorrow's consumer confidence and Friday's GDP, both for the US.

Corporate News:

AstraZeneca: Britain's second-largest drugmaker won U.S. regulatory approval on July 21 to sell the Symbicort asthma drug earlier than the company had expected.

EADS: Airbus, an EADS unit, says its new A380 supersized jet creates more turbulence than it previously thought and planes landing behind it will need to keep a longer distance, cutting capacity at airports, the Wall Street Journal reported. The shares rose 2 cents to 21.09 euros on Friday.

Valeo: Europe's third-biggest car-parts maker plans to report quarterly results after the market close. The company may report net income rose 8.3 percent to 52 million euros, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Gold moves the range we mentioned

Gold is Moving to our Range we Mentioned Before the Asia Trading

As we mentioned 610/615 and Bounce up is Possible
We keep Close eyes at the support around that level and 608

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USD traded higher in Asia, but the effects of a dovish Bernanke will likely continue to filter through the market. We expected the overall market to be relatively range bound as traders use this time to figure out the global rate outlook. However we should be ready for sudden movements as the lower volumes markets get pushed around.

The JPY got a huge lift from China on Friday as the PBoC increased bank’s reserve requirements in order to limit credit which has flooded the market and become an economic risk.

CAD disappointed the market with lower then expected CPI which leaves core at 1.7%, which is event less then the BoC had anticipated and will allow the BoC to continue hold current policy stance.

EURO/US Dollar

It broke the June lows last week, but was unable to close below 1.2465 50% retacement (form 1.1950-1.2979) keeping the bull trend line from February intact. Look for a daily close above 1.2705 which would give scope for increased upside acceleration for a retest of the inverse-head-and shoulder target at 1.2980.

British Pound/US Dollar

It broke key resistance last week at 1.8545 which was the level to look for if upside acceleration was once again to be seen. This gives scope for a 1.8750 and possible 1.8900 target in the upcoming trading week. Intra-week support is now at 1.8400.20

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

It made a sharp reversal last week after falling short of testing 118.00 resistance. The pair continues to trade within the longer term bear trend line from 1998 presently at 119.00 and last week’s sell-off gives scope for a 114.65 target this week 38% retracement (from 108.97-117.86) and then to 113.40 support.

Euro/Japanese Yen

It continues to find support confirmed by weekly stochastic turning higher. Look for a close above 148.00 this week to target 149 the high from October 1996 as long as 146.25 support remains intact.

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After last week's comments from Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke that a slowing U.S. economy is likely to weaken inflationary pressures, Fed watchers have a close eye on just how much the economy is slowing.

And they'll get their first look at second quarter growth on Friday. Economists expect the Commerce Department will report the economy slowed to 3.2 pct annualized growth during the three months ended in June. That's down from 5.6 pct growth in the first three months of the year.



The following is a list of US economic data to be released this week,



TUESDAY JULY 25

14:00 GMT

Consumer Confidence

FORECAST: 102

PRIOR MONTH: 105.7



"Bolstering the decline will be falling equity prices and higher gas prices. In terms of other consumer sentiment measures, while the IBD/TIPP index improved modestly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment fell by nearly two points to 83.0. The ABC/Washington Post index has been sticky in recent weeks and hasn't shown any substantial improvement,"



TUESDAY JULY 25

14:00 GMT

Existing Home Sales

FORECAST: 6.66 mln units

PRIOR MONTH: 6.67 mln units

"Mortgage purchase applications have edged lower since earlier in the year as the housing market has cooled. Prices have been edging down while supply keeps rising. Given press accounts, expect further slowing in the Northeast to be noted while the South shows more steady sales,"



THURSDAY JULY 27

12:30 GMT

Durable Goods Orders

FORECAST 2.1 PCT

PRIOR MONTH: -0.3 PCT



Following an increase in the ISM's new orders index in June, "underlying durable goods orders growth picked up in June. In addition, transportation orders likely rose in June on increases in aircraft orders (based on industry reports) and vehicle orders (since auto production was solid in the month). Defense orders may have also rebounded in June following the 30 pct decline of the last two months,"



THURSDAY JULY 27

12:30 GMT

Weekly Jobless Claims

FORECAST: 307,000

PRIOR WEEK: 304,000



THURSDAY JULY 27

14:00 GMT

New Home Sales

FORECAST: 1.108 mln units

PRIOR MONTH: 1.234 mln units



The 1.108 mln unit rate is the slowest rate in four months. "Mortgage purchase applications slowed further and on average the MBA purchase index was at its lowest levels in more than two and a half years. Given the sharp drop in builder sentiment, as well as earnings warnings from home builders, it seems likely sales dipped sharply,"



FRIDAY JULY 28

12:30 GMT

Q2 GDP First Estimate

FORECAST: 3.2 PCT

PRIOR: 5.6 PCT

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX

FORECAST: 0.8 PCT

PRIOR: 0.6 PCT



"As usual advance GDP forecasts are subject to a high degree of uncertainty given that we have no trade or inventory data for June (the Commerce Department makes assumptions for these two swing factors. The GDP deflator is seen up 3.5 pct in the second quarter which puts the estimated growth rate of nominal GDP at around 7.1 pct in the quarter,"

Gold Update 1

As we mentioned earlier Gold would go around 610/615
Right now Gold trading at 615
Came from 620.
We Expect 608 level is Very Near.
We will Advice further Later.

USD/JPY - Asia Trading

USD/JPY likely to move in 115.80-116.50 range in Asia with light data calendar at start of week to dull trade, sentiment slightly negative as players think Fed more inclined to pause hiking rates, so will look at U.S. data later this week. Adds some specs may buy JPY if CNY rises following China's hike in bank reserves, any JPY gains related to speculative CNY moves unlikely to become trend.

Gold Update

To Our Clients and Traders,
There are Likely chances for Gold to Rebound 615/610 level, and Push back up

Gold Intraday HEAVY Resistance looks around 640 level.

We Feel Asia Market to Push Gold Little Up.

However, we will Advice in few minutes further things.

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US SUMMARY FOR LAST WEEK

Lets Give you Some Refreshement of Last week .


USD stayed depressed Friday, losing more ground vs majors as investors continued to wonder about Fed's next decision on rates; double shot of Bernanke over week, FOMC June minutes, left many in market uncertain about chance of August hike.

USD/JPY supported by general yen weakness but EUR remained solid;

EUR/USD at 1.2695 late vs 1.2642 Thursday, USD/JPY 116.20 vs 116.80,

EUR/JPY 147.50 vs 147.67. The dollar is still under pressure because of the big change in expectations on Fed's next move, we're moving to mid-range levels against the majors but we could probably move into a lower range for USD. No major data out.

Stocks pitched lower as warning from Dell stocked concerns about slowing economy, overshadowed upbeat news from Microsoft;

DJIA off 0.6% (+1.2% for week),
Nasdaq off 0.9% (off 0.8% for week),
Philly semicons off 4.8%.

Treasurys dropped back after several days of good gains;
10-year at 100 19/32, down 4/32 to yield 5.05%.

August Comex gold off $12.30 at $620.20/oz as funds sold despite weaker USD;

September Nymex crude +16 cents at $74.43/bbl with traders reluctant to sell amid possibility of Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon.

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Trade Key

Solid Support: 618/620


Intra-Day Resistance (As Before Mini Support) - 633/636


Heavy Resistance - 647/650


Traders who havent entered, we would say DONT PANICK, And then enter.
Its better to be Off today, And Enjoy, And Begin On Monday

Futures Trading Update

Metals
Precious metals continued to consolidate yesterday and partly reached first solid support at 621 on Gold (Gap to close @618 ). Without any major economic datas out today we expect a tight range trading between 625 and 631.
If the 618/620 level is broken down we could be for further retracement towards 590/600.
Silver has been more resilient in the downtrend, trading range between 10.80-11.20.

Treasuries

The FOMC minutes were a confirmation for the market that the Fed will make a pause at the next meeting, it was enough to push treasuries through resistances respectively 105-15 and 116-30 for 10 yr Note and Bunds.
We have to look for higher targets but we will not be over optimistic as we are still in a (larger) range trading 115-117 on Bunds and 104-106 in Tnotes.
Trading: Good support seen @116.20 to target 116.70/90.
Stop below 116.00.

Energy Derivatives

Crude Oil price is still very price dependent from any development in the middle east. After four day of lower close we could be getting oversold and due for a technical bounce. Recent WTI crude weakness seems healthy nevertheless and the 73.50/75.30 range should be the inside range for today. Long term solid support @71.90.

Equity Trading Update

Google reported some strong figures last night with net income more than doubling QoQ. Lots of positives for the stock in a market that hasn’t seen a lot of good news from the earnings front. AMD dropped 6.5 percent in after-hours trading after releasing its Q2 report while Ford faced selling pressure throughout the session after another horrible quarter. Bill Ford, the Ford CEO, noted plenty of improvements internally but said that external threats are abundant. We agree, Mr. Ford - infact, we've said nothing but exactly that with regards to equities since early May.

Chipmakers are feeling the pain these days. Infineon's results released this morning also disappointed and the stock is indicated down more than 3 percent on the opening. SAP, after less-than-stellar report yesterday, is being downgraded by the big investment houses. The Bernanke-induced rally was short-lived and looks a lot like the move we saw after the June 29th FOMC.

We see Europe trading flat to lower ahead of the weekend, as Asia reacted as well, and feel the same for US.

Today's key earnings report:

EU: Infineon (0.04), Ericsson (0.35), Telenor (1.40)

US: Caterpillar (1.42), Eli Lilly (0.75), Halliburton (0.49), Schlumberger (0.63)

Corporate news:

PartyGaming: The world's largest Internet poker company will publish results of its annual general meeting. Shares have fallen 25 percent so far this month after a competitor and its executive officer was indicted in the U.S. this week, where a crackdown on online gaming is taking place. Shares fell 7 pence, or 7.4 percent, to 87.25 pence.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TECHNICAL SIGNALS

Bullish:

Barclays (price crosses 21- and 50-day MA,

Williams %R)ABB (double MA crossover, 21- and 50-day)

Bearish:

HBOS (price crosses 21- and 200-day, Momentum)

Renault (price crosses 21-day MA, Momentum)