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Sunday, July 23, 2006

ECONOMIC STUDY RIDE FOR THIS WEEK

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After last week's comments from Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke that a slowing U.S. economy is likely to weaken inflationary pressures, Fed watchers have a close eye on just how much the economy is slowing.

And they'll get their first look at second quarter growth on Friday. Economists expect the Commerce Department will report the economy slowed to 3.2 pct annualized growth during the three months ended in June. That's down from 5.6 pct growth in the first three months of the year.



The following is a list of US economic data to be released this week,



TUESDAY JULY 25

14:00 GMT

Consumer Confidence

FORECAST: 102

PRIOR MONTH: 105.7



"Bolstering the decline will be falling equity prices and higher gas prices. In terms of other consumer sentiment measures, while the IBD/TIPP index improved modestly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment fell by nearly two points to 83.0. The ABC/Washington Post index has been sticky in recent weeks and hasn't shown any substantial improvement,"



TUESDAY JULY 25

14:00 GMT

Existing Home Sales

FORECAST: 6.66 mln units

PRIOR MONTH: 6.67 mln units

"Mortgage purchase applications have edged lower since earlier in the year as the housing market has cooled. Prices have been edging down while supply keeps rising. Given press accounts, expect further slowing in the Northeast to be noted while the South shows more steady sales,"



THURSDAY JULY 27

12:30 GMT

Durable Goods Orders

FORECAST 2.1 PCT

PRIOR MONTH: -0.3 PCT



Following an increase in the ISM's new orders index in June, "underlying durable goods orders growth picked up in June. In addition, transportation orders likely rose in June on increases in aircraft orders (based on industry reports) and vehicle orders (since auto production was solid in the month). Defense orders may have also rebounded in June following the 30 pct decline of the last two months,"



THURSDAY JULY 27

12:30 GMT

Weekly Jobless Claims

FORECAST: 307,000

PRIOR WEEK: 304,000



THURSDAY JULY 27

14:00 GMT

New Home Sales

FORECAST: 1.108 mln units

PRIOR MONTH: 1.234 mln units



The 1.108 mln unit rate is the slowest rate in four months. "Mortgage purchase applications slowed further and on average the MBA purchase index was at its lowest levels in more than two and a half years. Given the sharp drop in builder sentiment, as well as earnings warnings from home builders, it seems likely sales dipped sharply,"



FRIDAY JULY 28

12:30 GMT

Q2 GDP First Estimate

FORECAST: 3.2 PCT

PRIOR: 5.6 PCT

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX

FORECAST: 0.8 PCT

PRIOR: 0.6 PCT



"As usual advance GDP forecasts are subject to a high degree of uncertainty given that we have no trade or inventory data for June (the Commerce Department makes assumptions for these two swing factors. The GDP deflator is seen up 3.5 pct in the second quarter which puts the estimated growth rate of nominal GDP at around 7.1 pct in the quarter,"

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