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Thursday, September 21, 2006

FOREX UPDATE: EUR/USD Clears Resistance

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EURUSD blew through the pivotal 1.2755 resistance on Thursday, ending over nine sessions of choppy action between there and the Sep 15 1.2630 low. The next resistance is at 1.2803, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2941-1.2630 decline. A sustained move above there would certainly change the technical mood of this market, bring up the possibility of a move above the 1.2880 Aug 31 prominent reaction high. Mild support is Thursday's 1.2696 reaction low.

USDCHF broke the 1.2434 Sep 14 reaction low, putting the short-term bull trend on hold. The next support is 1.2394 reaction low from Sep 11. Only a move above Thursday's 1.2545 reaction high would offset the downward pressure for now.

GBPUSD continues to press higher, knocking out resistances at 1.8938 and 1.8978, the 61.8% retracement of 1.9146-1.8601 and the 76.4% retracement of 1.9094-1.8601, respectively. Penetration there brings the prominent reaction high from Aug 31 at 1.9094 into focus. Mild support is in the 1.8931 to 1.8920 congestion area from previous highs.

USDJPY pushed through support from Wednesday's 116.97 low. Mild congestion is in the 116.10 to 115.91 area, but the next bug support is from the 115.56 reaction low from Sep 5. The Sep 18 118.30 trend high to the 118.50 trendline intersection remains the pivotal upside barrier for now.

USDCAD has sold off sharply after the rally from 1.1029 stalled around the 1.1295 Fibonacci resistance, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1460 to 1.1029 decline. Mild support is in focus at Sep 18's 1.1160 reaction low, followed by 1.1119, a reaction low from Sep 14.

AUDUSD remains choppy from the 0.7482 Sep 12 low, but it has yet to sustain a break from the 0.7574 Fibonacci resistance, the 38.2% retracement of the 0.7722-0.7482 decline. Violation there opens the door toward a mild resistance at Sep 7's 0.7607 reaction high, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 0.7630. Support is found at 0.7505 and 0.7404, reaction lows from Sep 19 and Sep 15, respectively.

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