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Wednesday, September 20, 2006

FOREX TECHNICAL LEVELS

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EURUSD Holds Below 1.2755. It kept to a sideways, noisy theme Wednesday, with post-event strength holding below pivotal resistance from last Thursday's 1.2755 reaction high. Only a move above there would shift our focus away from the Sep 15 1.2630 trend low. The next important support is 1.2570, the 76.4% retracement of the 1.2456-1.2941 rise.

USDCHF kept is choppy action above support at the 1.2434 reaction low Sep 14. Only a break there would shift our focus away from the 1.2625 Sep 15 trend high. Remember that there's little support above there till 1.2764, the .618 retracement of the 1.3287-1.1919 decline.

GBPUSD ground to a new recovery high from the 1.8601 Sep 11 low, briefly exceeding the 1.8920 high from Sep 14. Secondary resistance runs from 1.8938 to1.8978, the 61.8% retracement of 1.9146-1.8601 and the 76.4% retracement of 1.9094-1.8601, respectively. Only a move above this area would lessen the chances for a revisit of the 1.8734 reaction low from Sep 18.

USDJPY probed Tuesday's 116.99 low, keeping Wednesday's violation to merely two pips. We'll need to see follow-through declines below this area to confirming waning upside momentum, possibly exposing the 115.56 reaction low from Sep 5. The 118.50 trendline intersection remains the pivotal upside barrier for now.

USDCAD continues to hover generally below the 1.1295 Fibonacci resistance. It marks the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1460 to 1.1029 decline, and only a sustained move above it would expose the 1.1321 prominent reaction high from Aug 15.

AUDUSD recent recovery from 0.7482 maintained a three-leg corrective path, violating Fibonacci resistance at 0.7574 by merely two pips. This level marked the 38.2% retracement of the 0.7722-0.7482 decline and its ability to reject the recent correction keeps our trend focus on the Sep 12 0.7482 low, followed by 0.7442, the .618 retracement of the 0.7269-0.7722 rise.

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