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Tuesday, September 26, 2006

FOREX UPDATE : EUR/USD Big support : 1.2630

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EURUSD saw follow-through declines Tuesday, walking through Fibonacci support at 1.2708 without much hesitation. While hourly momentum indicators are oversold, there's not much significant support till the 1.2630 notable low from Sep 15. And it's a big one, with not much below it till 1.2570, the .764 retracement of the 1.2456-1.2941 rise. Right now, it would take a move a reaction high from Monday at 1.2767 to offset current downward pressures.

USDCHF made further upward progress Tuesday, knocking mild resistance at 1.2419, the .382 retracement of the 1.2626-1.2291 decline. Now there's room toward secondary resistance around 1.2497, the .618 retracement of the same drop. Only a break of the 1.2291 low from Friday would offset upward pressures for now.

GBPUSD slowly side toward the solid support zone from the Sep 14 1.8920 high to the Sep 20 1.8863 reaction low. The lack of downward momentum suggests that a break there will likely prove difficult. Nonetheless, only a break there would reasonably dismiss the chances for a run at Monday's 1.9076 high.

USDJPY responded to the upside on back of rising hourly momentum indicators. Resistance comes to play around 117.44, the .618 retracement of the 118.30-116.06 decline. Not far of is congestion in the 117.53 to 117.80 area, reaction highs from Sep 20 and 19, respectively. As long as this area holds, we'll expect this pair to remain vulnerable toward the Sep 5 115.56 reaction low.

USDCAD continues to consolidate last week's late drop. Resistance runs from Thursday's 1.1208 reaction high to 1.1229, the .618 retracement of the 1.1298-1.1118 decline. But only a move above last week's 1.1298 high would offset the overall bearish pressures. Looking ahead, below Friday's 1.1118 low, the next support is nearby from 1.1092 to 1.1091, the .764 retracement of the 1.1029-1.1298 rise and the Sep 8 reaction low, respectively.

AUDUSD maintains choppy path from the Sep 12 0.7482 low, keeping the bearish tone intact from the Sep 4 0.7722 high. Penetration of 0.7482 would open the door toward the 0.7442 Fibonacci support. It marks the 61.8% retracement of the 0.7269-0.7722 rise.

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