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Tuesday, September 26, 2006

EUR/USD looks mantaining Pressure below 1.2700

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EURUSD continues to edge lower from 1.2834, Sep 22 high. This level now stands as yet another obstacle ahead of the cluster of resistance between 1.2868, the 76.4% retracement of the 1.2941 to 1.2630 decline and 1.2880, Aug 31 reaction high. Having already violated last Friday's 1.2775 low, we expect further downside towards 1.2708, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2630 to 1.2834 advance.

USDCHF having held support at 1.2287, the 76.4% retracement of the 1.2183 to 1.2625 advance, the USD is now poised for a fresh assault on Friday's 1.2432 high ahead of extended upside towards last Thursday's 1.2545 high and ultimately Sep 15's 1.2625 top.

GBPUSD the risk of an intra-range setback is now more acute as sterling encroaches on the cluster of resistance between 1.9094, Aug 31 reaction high and 1.9146, Aug 8 top, but the immediate outlook remains constructive above the formerly resistant 1.8920 level.

USDJPY is expected to remain vulnerable near-term following the recent failure ahead of the key multi-year trendline resistance at 118.56. With short-term trend-line support originating form early August also cleared, the focus remains on 115.56, Sep reaction 5 low. Retain a negative near-term stance beneath 117.49, Sep 21 high.

USDCAD having rejected the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1460 to 1.1029 decline at 1.1295, looks set to take out support at 1.1118 from Sep 22 and downside trigger for 1.1029, Sep 1 reaction low. Maintain a bearish view below 1.1298, Sep 20 reaction high.

AUDUSD failure to make headway beyond 0.7582, Sep 21 high continues to weigh, with a break of 0.7482, Sep 13 low expected to yield further downside towards 0.7442, the 61.8% retracement level of the 0.7269 to 0.7722 advance and ultimately 0.7405, Jul 19 reaction low.

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