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Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Fed Funds Update

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In one of the most volatile day in recent history in federal-funds futures, all near-term contracts posting gains between 1 and 13 BP.
April contract recently up 2 BP at 94.77, and pricing in an 8% chance for an FOMC rate cut to 5% at the Mar. 20-21 meeting.
May contract, recently up 3 BP at 94.79, prices in a 23% chance for a rate cut at the May 9 FOMC meeting.
July contract, recently up 13 BP at 94.93, prices in a 72% chance for a rate cut at the June 27-28 Fed meeting.
Current rate is 5.25%.

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