ECB Rate Decision at 11:45 GMT

No surprises are expected from the ECB at 1145 GMT, with a 25bp rate hike to 3.25% being priced into both fixed income and EUR/USD. However, President Trichet's language at the subsequent press conference will be crucial.

'Strong vigilance' implies a follow up rate hike in November, representing an acceleration in the pace of tightening which is so far not priced into the market and so will be significantly euro positive.

'Vigilance', implies a Dec rate hike, almost fully discounted by the market but probably modestly Euro positive.

'Closely monitor' would suggest a further hike will come after Christmas and would be a clear Euro negative