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Monday, October 09, 2006

Crude Oil Update

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Crude oil is easing off overnight highs and seen resuming its downward trend on market scepticism that the OPEC cartel will come to an official agreement over output cuts before its planned December 14 meeting in Abuja.
The recent attempts by the hawkish members of the cartel to stem crude oil price decline, by telling wires that the cartel is backing a 1.0mln bpd cut now looks fully priced in and failure
to hold an emergency meeting on October 18/19 in Vienna now leaves crude
oil vulnerable to test fresh year-to-date lows below $57.55.

Technically, last week's close below $60.30 -- the 100-week moving average -- first close below this moving average for the first time since June 2002 - now deemed to be extremely bearish.

WTI Nymex crude oil is at $60.24, up 48 cents.

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