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Thursday, September 14, 2006

FOREX TECHNICAL LEVELS

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EURUSD extended its tight range for the week, but not by much. After violation of Monday's 1.2744 high, nearby resistance from Sep 1's 1.2755 low and Sep 7's 1.2759 reaction high stymied the recovery from 1.2665. Only a move above this area would offset the downward pressure and shift focus away from 1.2641, the .618 retracement of the 1.2456-1.2941 rise.

USDCHF saw a lot of news-inspired volatility this week, but so far, it's holding above support in the 1.2394 area. Only a break of this reaction low from Monday would mark a departure from the 1.2228 bull channel, shifting focus away from the 1.2597 Jul 19 high.

GBPUSD recovery from Monday's 1.8601 low punched through mild resistance in the 1.8784 to 1.8789 area but ran out of steam after violating 1.8906, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.9094-1.8601 decline. Secondary resistance is in the 1.8978 area. Penetration of Tuesday's 1.8775 high would give us confirmation of a reversal to the downside.

USDJPY continues to consolidate the new trend high at 118.16, holding well above support the Sep 11 116.60 reaction low support. There's little in the way of significant resistance above the current 118.16 trend high till trendline resistance in the 118.50 region and then the 118.90 Apr 11 reaction high.

USDCAD violated mild support from Tuesday's 1.1156 reaction low, but stopped just ten pips from Fibonacci support, the .618 retracement of the 1.1043 to 1.1238 rise at 1.1109. The notable recovery from 1.1119 would have to move above Wednesday's 1.1238 high though to bring back focus to the upside. Even then, the nearby 1.127 reaction high from Aug 18 will likely prove a tough obstacle to cross.

AUDUSD poked above congestion resistance in the 0.7543 to 0.7551 area, shifting focus away from 0.7440, the 61.8% retracement of the 0.7269-0.7717 rise, at least temporarily. The next mild resistance is 0.7574, the 38.2% retracement of the 0.7722-0.7482 decline, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 0.7630. Only a break of the 0.7482 trend low would reinstate the bear trend.

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