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Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Fed Calls - Economy looks Right

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Weaker housing and lower core inflation is further evidence the Fed's call on the economy is right.
Such a view has long been held by many in the bond market.
The inversion between Dec/Dec futures is now -36, up from -34bps as the idea of rate cuts next year sits firmly on the table.
It also explains why the Tsy yield curve from 2-yr to 10-yr now sits at or below 4.90%, 35bps under the current fed funds rate.
With the long bond yielding 5.0%, and core CPI having broken the recent string of 0.3% prints, it seems only a matter of time before the whole curve displays a 4% handle

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