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Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Upside risks to US CPI DATA ?

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The Market consensus may well be for the US Headline and Core CPI to have both fallen to 0.2% last month. But, recent PPI numbers suggest there could be upside risks for both. Points to higher food prices that could push the headline rate higher at the same time that a rise in the owners equivalent rental index puts the core rate at risk.
The OER is inversely correlated with residential utility prices, which were down in the Lastest PPI numbers.
There is achance that this boosts OER above already solid primary rental growth rates, providing a further boost to core CPI, as we hear.

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