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Thursday, July 20, 2006

EQUITY UPDATES

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THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

So, Bernanke did it again: came out a dove and markets rallied. Yesterday had all the traits of what we saw on June 29th where he came out dovish as well. Had he been a hawk instead, certainly something we would have understood fully, he would have lost all credibility. After a dismal performance since mid-July, momentum accounts were itching to throw money at the market and it was basically one-way traffic.

Following such rallies we always find it best to remind our clients of our notably bearish stance on equities. We think investors will have a second look at what Bernanke actually said yesterday and the awful outlook for housing. Then there's earnings: from what we've seen so far we can safely say that the profit cycle is coming to an end and that earnings momentum will continue to slow in coming quarters. Though the likes of Apple and Ebay reported strong results after bell last night, much bigger and important names such as Intel and Qualcomm reported on the weak side. We'll continue to look at earnings on a case-by-case basis but the overall picture right now isn't comforting.

Key earnings reports today:

Europe: Nokia (0.25), SAP (1.30), Iberdrola (0.39).

US: Honeywell (0.61), Microsoft (0.30), Pfizer (0.48), AMD (0.22), Ford (0.12), GOOG (2.22).

Corporate news:

European Aeronautic, Defense & Space: Airbus SAS, trailing Boeing Co. in orders this year, won a contract worth as much as $2.6 billion from AirAsia Bhd. for 40 single-aisle A320 planes. EADS is the majority owner of Airbus. EADS shares rose 91 cents, or 4.6 percent, to 20.67 euros.

SAP: The world's largest maker of business-management software plans to release complete second-quarter earnings. The company last week said quarterly revenue from licenses rose less than analysts anticipated as orders were delayed. The shares climbed 1.62 euros, or 1.1 percent, to 147.52 euros.



TECHNICAL SIGNALS

Bullish:

Daimler Chrysler (price crosses 21-day MA, Momentum)

Ericsson (price crosses 50-day MA, Williams %R)

Astra Zeneca (price crosses 21-day MA, Momentum)

Infineon (price crosses 50-day MA, Momentum)

Bearish:

Siemens (double MA crossover, 21- and 50-day)

SAP (double MA crossover, 50- and 200-day)

Deutsche Bank (double MA crossover, 50- and 200-day)

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