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Thursday, August 31, 2006

USD/JPY May Rise in Asia

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USD/JPY may rise in Asia as Japan investment funds place regular start-of-month orders, says senior trader at major Japan bank. "The orders are still few in number, but the volume is slowly increasing," he says; adds, Japan exporters, importers likely to be inactive after settlement day, ahead of weekend. First resistance at 117.60, then 117.90 in Asia; support at 117.20. Pair last 117.42 on EBS

Speech End for Bernake

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Ok Speech has come to end,
Not much Market mover.

Silver is reacting one of the best today.

However Technical Games will come in to hand soon, We might see a little small technical dip in gold, a quick one, to note.

Tommorrow (FRIDAY) will be a very UNIQUE and Interesting day

Main Datas, and Iran Sanctions discussion, As they have last day today , and tommorrow officials will discuss over it. So it shall be market moving.

Bernake reads his Speech

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Fed's Bernanke is reading his speech now. It is unclear if there's Q&A, but if he sticks to productivity in the questions there should not be much that matters to markets.

Bernake Sees Productivity Strong

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Fed Chairman Bernanke said that "a case can be made that the strong productivity growth of the post-1995 era is likely to continue for some time." Though there have been downward revisions to productivity gains in recent years, Bernanke said that "the recent experience does not appear to require a significant rethinking of long-term productivity trends."

BERNAKE LIVE

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BERNAKE LIVE

BERNAKE SPEECH

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A wire service broke embargo on Bernanke text, but it is not market moving. Sticks to repeating basics on productivity.

More information shall be provided

COMEX Gold Update

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Comex gold has edged above $632.00 and is targeting $646.00 resistance

ECB Comments

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Main driver of upward inflation forecasts is oil, commodities

EUR/USD Trade Update

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Trade Idea we gave earlier 4 hours back for EUR/USD
Buy 1.2855 - EUR/USD should be in profits for you, Wait and see the Market trend, or you close in profit

However, Target remains 1.29

ECB Comments

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Trichet seen signalling an October rate hike, not September.

ECB Comments

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END of his Speech
He now takes Questions

ECB Comments

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Strong Vigilance warranted Again

ECB Comments

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Trichet now talks on Wage Settlements,
Mentions Oil Price Impact on Inflation, Something which is heard before

Trichet warns inflation likely to remain Elevated, with upside risks on the back of oil prices, tax hikes and stronger-than-expected wage growth

ECB Comments

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See Upward pressure on inflation on 2007

EUR/USD Pushes to $1.2880 area as initial stops a top $1.2870 fire off but further interest tipped atop $1.2880 ahead of offers into $1.2890/00.

ECB Comments

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Will not comment on market expectations; 'we are clear'

- We are in strong vigilance

- We do what is needed, do not pre-commit ex-ante

- We are constantly alert and never pre-commit

ECB Comments

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New info has further underpinned rate hike Aug3
- Must contain upside risks to price stability
- Money, credit growth dynamic, liquidity ample
- MonPol remains accomodative
- Further withdrawl of monetary stimulus warranted
- Must anchor inflation expectations to enable sustainable GDP/jobs

ECB Comments

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Q3 data show GDP still growing around potential, 2006 growth between 2.2% - 2.6%
2007 1.6% -2.6%

ECB Comments

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New info has further underpinned rate hike Aug3
- Must contain upside risks to price stability
- Money, credit growth dynamic, liquidity ample
- MonPol remains accomodative
- Further withdrawl of monetary stimulus warranted
- Must anchor inflation expectations to enable sustainable GDP/jobs

ECB comments

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Main Indicators showing improvements in growth, data show stronger growth than many forecasts,
Says Gradual tightening needed if scenario confirmed.

ECB Comments

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ECB will exercise strong vigilance, starting off as he did three months Ago.
More Interest Rate hiking chances

Slam on USD
EUR/USD on rise.

Data Reaction

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Dollar a tad softer on the core PCE data and stock futures holding modest gains. Tsys lift.

Trichet About to speak

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Trichet About to Speak.
We will put more info As it comes

Iran Updates

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Wire reporting that EU Solana and Iran's Larijani agree to have face to face meeting soon.

US Split ahead of Inflation Data in few minutes

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The dollar is split, down versus its European rivals but little changes against the yen ahead of the release of fresh U.S. inflation data.
Overnight the dollar dropped further against the euro as investors awaited the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates on hold as expected. Investors are now awaiting a slew of fresh U.S. data, as well as the ECB's press conference and comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke later in the session.

ECB Rate Unchanged

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Ok ECB Rate Announcement Un-Changed

12:30 GMT Eyes on Trichets Speech.

See the wordings, the Main important thing.

And at the same thing we have PCE , Intial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims coming up same time

So much movement in EUR/USD today

ECB rate decision in 10 minutes

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In 10 minutes ECB Rate Decision - Expected 3.00%
Trichet will then give Press Conference at 12:30 GMT (MUCH EYES ON IT)
Along his speech we have many US Datas coming in.

This will make Heavy movements in Precious Metals, Eur/usd as well

Interesting day today

Iran Update

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Iranian President Ahmadinejad reported saying on Iranian radio that Iran will never abandon its right to peaceful nuclear technology.

Things getting worse, so precious Metals Call from us is - BUY IN ANY DIPS.
Sit, Relax, Keep good Margin.

Gold Stocks shall rise - Helps Gold Spot Price

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There are chances for Gold to rise.
Goldcorp agress to buy Glamis, and this could help the Gold Stocks today, Which in retun push the Gold Spot Price.

Call is Buy in any Dips,

As we do see Iran tensions today, Crude Oil rising, Dollar weakness, all support for Precious Metals.

Keep Eyes on 11:45 GMT ECB Rate Call

Market waits for ECB Rate Decision

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European Traders await for 11:45 GMT ECB Rate Decision.
Watch for the words as well of Trichet, shall be market moving.

Technically looking for EUR/USD we see 1.29 to go.

BUt we should see how the market trend and reacts aftyer 11:45 GMT, At present market looks still.

Could we see Suprise like BOE, Maybe, lets see, Inflation is the main key.

Cheers.

EarthQuake in Tokyo

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EarthQuake in Tokyo Shaking Building and has a magnitude of 4.8 on the richter Scale

This Disaster, would lead a little support as well to Precious Metals

Today we have Iran News, a Challenging one.

We have ECB Announcing rates, Best to deal EUR/USD.
If same as expected, watch the words.

We have good amount of US Datas today.

Overall a Nice lovely Day.

Interesting Day today

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Interesting day today. Lets Start with Europe.

Today we have the following for Euro Zone

9:00 GMT

CPI Estimate YoY (E-Z) Aug - Expected 2.3%
Business Climate Indicator (E-Z) Aug - Expected 1.30
Industrial Confidence (E-Z) Aug - Expected 3
Consumer Confidence (E-Z) Aug - Expected -8
Economic Confidence (E-Z) Aug - Expected 107.3
Services Confidence (E-Z) Aug - Expected 18

11:45 GMT

ECB Announces Rates (E-Z) Aug - Expected 3.00%

If they give Suprise, EUR/USD will go way up, if they keep same, Watch for the words.


We assume Now EUR/USD has passed the technical Resistance, we get long 1.2855 with stop order 1.2830 with Target 1.29+

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

FED: Bernake Comments

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Bernanke's comments on wires stem from written answers (dated Aug 18) to long-ago questions posed in Congressional testimony. Bernanke said the Fed is alert to inflation warnings but appears to favor a modest hike in the min wage. He also said rising incomes should allow consumer spending to expand moderately

Israel says "NO"

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Reports passing by that Israel has said "NO" we wont leave Lebanon territory, Things looked eased earlier, and everyone expected friendly relation might develop.

However, tensions scenerio Emerging again,
31st August (Tommorrow) we have Iran News.

Next week Major Powers plan to discuss regarding Iran Sanctions in Europe

This shall boost the precious Metal

ANY DIP, BUY IS THE CALL.
AND REMEMBER TO KEEP GOOD MARGIN.

WHEN YOU SEE SOMETHING IN PROFIT, DONT WAIT, GRAB A LITTLE, OR YOU MIGHT LOSE IT.

Cheers, shall provide more info,.

IRAN TALKS DISCUSSION -

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The U.N. deadline for Iran to halt their uranium enrichment program is August 31. However, reports suggest that the UN Security Council will not immediately impose sanctions on the country, which last week stated bluntly that it will not stop its nuclear activities, but appeared amenable to some compromise about its program.

RadioFreeEurope quotes Gholamreza Aqazedeh, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Org, stating today that he will visit Russia next week to discuss the proposal drafted by GermanY and the 5 permanent members of the UNSC.

Recent UNSC comments suggest that it will take time to respond to Iran's refusal to stop its uranium enrichment by Thursday. An AP report Tuesday quotes Britain's UN Ambassador Emyr Jones-Parry saying the UNSC will need until mid-Sept before acting on its threat of sanctions.

Before the UNSC can act, it will need to receive a report from The IAEA on Iran's compliance regarding the UNSC proposal.

US Ambassador Josh Bolton has stressed that the US will seek sanctions if Iran disregards the proposal.

Silver - Short term Consolidation

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Silver has spent much of the month of August in a fairly tight trading band between the 23rd's 12.69 high and the 14th's 11.74 low.

The inability to push below the bottom of this band suggests that this consolidation fits into the category of continuation pattern. Thus, the odds are growing in favor of an eventual bullish resolution.

Interestingly, 11.74 is also close in proximity to the intersection of the bottom boundary of the bull channel from 9.48. So with 11.74 holding then, we must respect the possibility of a run above the 12.69 range high.

Cycle-based momentum indicators also favor the upside for now, maintaining strength around the neutral zone, leaving them plenty of room to move higher before becoming overbought.
Above 12.69, the next resistance is 13.027-the 61.8% retracement of the 15.22 to 9.48 decline-followed by the prominent reaction high from May 30 at 13.40.

Maintain a neutral, flexible stance for now, but with more potential for a bullish resolution above 12.69.

Bernake will Speak About Productivity today

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All the US Datas are now done,
We just have Bernake Speaking About Productivity at 16:30 GMT

Gold/Silver moved very nicely
And USD Remains Bearish

Todays Call, Buy in Dips. Quicky Trades

MARKET DISCUSSION RE: GDP, AND FULL ECONOMY

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The dollar rose against the yen and traded little changed against the euro early Wednesday after a government report showed the U.S. economy was stronger than first believed in the first half of the year.

The Commerce Department said real gross domestic product for the second quarter was revised to 2.9% annualized from the earlier estimate of 2.5%. The economy grew 5.6% in the first quarter.
The revisions to the second-quarter GDP were largely due to higher investments in nonresidential structures, more inventory building and higher exports, offset by lower investments in housing.

Overall, the report is unlikely to have much lasting impact on the greenback. We look for range-bound dealings to prevail.

In early New York trading, the euro was quoted at $1.2831, compared with $1.2824 late Tuesday. The dollar changed hands at 116.98 yen, compared with 116.65 yen.
The British pound traded at $1.9030 compared with $1.8982. The dollar was last at 1.2286 Swiss francs, compared with 1.2283 francs.
The euro fetched 150.14 yen, compared with 149.58 yen.

Earlier, the greenback showed little reaction to a monthly Automatic Data Processing national employment report that showed U.S. nonfarm private payroll-sector payrolls grew by 107,000 in August.
Adding in the average 10,000 government jobs created in a typical month in the past year, the ADP report would indicate growth in nonfarm payrolls of about 117,000 in August.
The Labor Department will report on the August nonfarm payroll figures Friday. Economists expect a gain of about 130,000 jobs, including government employment.

The U.S. economic numbers this morning painted a softer outlook for the U.S. economy, We could very well see a weak non-farm payrolls number on Friday.

The dollar has not reacted much since GDP is a backward looking indicator and ADP has been unreliable in recent months. However, both reports are certainly more dollar bearish than the opposite

Euro sets new high vs. yen

Meanwhile, the euro surged to a fresh record against the yen after a weaker than expected Japanese retail sales figure reinforced expectations interest rates in the world's second largest economy will remain low for some time.
Retail sales fell 1.7% month-on-month in July, while wages fell for the first time in six months by 0.1% year-on-year.

After outperforming most major currencies yesterday, it was a return to business as normal for the yen today.

Traders are looking ahead to the European Central Bank's interest-rate announcement Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to leave its interest rates unchanged at 3%, although ECB head Jean-Claude Trichet may signal that a rate hike should be expected in October.

The dollar fell against major foreign-exchange counterparts Tuesday, after the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting offered little insight into the direction of future U.S. interest rates.

A new Fed staff forecast of below-trend growth over the next year and a half was a key factor in the central bank's decision to stop tightening in early August after two years of steady rate hikes, according to the minutes. Many FOMC members saw the decision as a "close call" and agreed further rate hikes might be needed.

Fed Fisher taking Q&A

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Fed's Fisher is taking Q&A, nothing mkt-moving.

COMEX GOLD HELPED BY SHORT COVERING

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At least some of the buying in Comex gold Wednesday morning has been short covering, It's offsetting positions. Yesterday, we had a sell. So you have a lot of people covering and getting long. Overall, the market is quiet and remaining sideways within its recent range.

Dec gold is up $7.90 to $627. Dec silver has added 28.8 cents to $12.61

Market Talks

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FOMC Minutes from 8th of Aug Meeting showed an uncomfortably dilemma: Inflation is likely to stay high or even increase, while growth in the next six quarters is likely to moderate to below potential.
Today’s US GDP will show if the FOMC is right. Core PCE QoQ expected at 2.9% (quite high). Could we cross the psycologically important 3%?
Stocks are looking good short-term, baring any negative news.

FOREX UPDATE - USD

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The US dollar continues to trade in tight ranges, recording a 1.2820-1.2854 range against the EUR this morning in Asia and a 116.59-116.93 range against the JPY. Though the USD yesterday managed to shrug of weak consumer confidence data, the Fed minutes released later yesterday surprisingly did not help push the greenback higher.

The FOMC minutes suggested that the decision to pause at the last FOMC meeting had broad support, but there was no great conviction that the tightening cycle had ended.

But despite the FOMC clearly keeping the door open to further rate hikes, the greenback was unable to follow through.

Indeed with the Fed minutes stressing that future interest rate changes continue to depend on economic data going forward, we stay bearish on the greenback. Since the August 8 FOMC meeting, US data especially on housing has come out weaker than expected.

We feel that the Fed has now finished and the next move will be rate cuts in 2007.

Today's data includes the ADP estimate of Friday's forthcoming payrolls data, and Q2 GDP preliminary data which should be revised up from the initial reading of just 2.5% to a more palatable 3.0% growth rate for the US economy.

Tomorrow we get Chicago PMI and core PCE data and Friday we get payrolls and ISM. We think the data on balance this week will continue to show the US economy losing further momentum.

FOREX TECHNICAL LEVELS

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EURUSD - Remains marginally firmer this morning having found support at 1.2723 on Aug 25. The recent rejection off 1.2941, on Aug 21 and subsequent sell-off however is expected to weigh overall with potential seen for a resumption of weakness and a test of the next key support at 1.2695, Aug 14 low. A break of this level would be seen as a significant bearish development while on the topside, clearance of 1.2941 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDCHF - No change here with recent consolidative price action having defined 1.2446, Aug 15 high and 1.2183, Aug 21 low as the key near-term directional parameters.

GBPUSD - probed the 1.9024, Aug 16 peak however a clear break is still required to pave the way for a retest of key resistance at 1.9146, the Aug 8 high. On the downside, support and key bear trigger lies at 1.8775.

USDJPY - Is expected to maintain a positive theme while support at 116.09, Aug 23 low remains intact. The next upside trigger is located at 117.42, Aug 25 high where a break would pave the way for strength towards 117.89, the July 19 high.

USDCAD - maintains a bearish bias ahead of support at 1.1050, Aug 23 low. A break of this level is expected to yield further downside towards 1.1033, Jun 21 low en route to 1.0962, Jun 12 base and ultimately 1.0932, May 31 trend low. Immediate heavy tone dominates below 1.1161, Aug 23 high.

AUDUSD - Intraday support lies at 0.7551, Aug 25 low where a break is now required to expose 0.7524 and 0.7479, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracements of the 0.7406 to 0.7715 advance. On the topside, initial resistance comes in at 0.7673, Aug 23 high.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Main Concern Remains on Inflation Figures

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Now Main concern Remains on Inflation Figures, FOMC meeting concluded to the understanding that a tightening process isnot yet Over, Despite weakning Housing in the US

FOMC Minutes say

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The FOMC minutes say Richmond Fed's Lacker "dissented because he believed that further tightening was needed to bring inflation down more rapidly than would be the case if the policy rate were kept unchanged...Although real growth was likely to be somewhat lower in coming quarters, in his view it was unlikely to moderate by enough to bring core inflation down."

AUG FED MINUTES

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Aug 8 Fed minutes (policy unch at 5.25%, Lacker dissented): a somewhat bearish read, as members said unch was a "close call." All participants expressed concern about inflation risks but "members generally saw limited risk in deferring further policy tightening that might prove necessary, as long as inflation expectations remained contained." Staff forecast was marked lower but is still looking for the economy to slow. Along with econ slowing, most FOMC participants look for inflation to slow, but "the upside risks to inflation were significant." Members said so far econ "slowing seemed to be orderly," though housing had "a relatively sharp fall" in some areas. FOMC discussed communications, came to no conclusion. Lacker dissented because he said the inflation outlook had deteriorated and real growth was unlikely to moderate "by enough" to bring core inflation down.

Bush rejects Iran President Proposal

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If you see we did mention Earlier Iran President gave a proposal for a live debate with President Bush
And this could be another reason for Traders to close there position and brought to Primary Support - 607 Level
And Bush Rejected it, And we seeing it right now at 612

We hope to look for 615/616 a close, so it looks much better tommorrow

31st August will be a CHALLENGING NEWS.

REMEMBER we also have Minutes of FOMC meeting at 18:00 GMT -

607 level tries to hold

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607 is trying to hold the gold.
As days are near for 31st, Traders tend to close there positions and due to Crude Oil down ward push.

Gold 607 Primary support is helping it
And we hope to see an End of NY Spot at 616/617 levels, or else we could see tommorrow 603 levels, where the Main Support lies,

A Gradual Push shall help, As we have reports that there were many traders who have bought at around 608 levels again, and we hope this strength could help.

In COMEX, we have seen Traders buying around 617.0 / 617.3 levels.
Where the support level lies in FUTURES market.

We hope to see Gradual Slow Pace movement,

If we try to see long term prespective, this is concerned to be a nice Zig Zag pattern Developing

There is a Main key for it to react this way, And few months back we did mention gold to remain Slow and wont react BULL like it did in Feb, March. As now it doesnt wants to do HEAVY Correction which it did few months back in terms of over $150 DOWNWARD Push.

However, this slow pace movement, will help it in the future.

Gold right now gave Push from 607 and now 610

CRUDE TECHNICAL PICTURE

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NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE TECHS: Breaks Below 200-day Moving Ave

RES 4: $74.20 100-day moving average
RES 3: $73.75 Failure high 25 Aug
RES 2: $71.45 5-day moving average
RES 1: $70.90 Hourly high

LAST PRICE: $69.40

SUP 1: $69.35 50.0% of $80.37 to $58.31
SUP 2: $69.05 Daily low 5 Apr
SUP 3: $68.05 Daily low 29 Mar
SUP 4: $67.85 Support line from 28 Nov 2005

Bears taking control and break below the 200-day moving average at $69.65, is seen triggering further weakness to $69.35, which is the 50.0% retracement of the October range. However, m/t risk is now seen to $67.85, which is a trend line from November 28, 2005.

Main Key Today

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Main Key Again today for fall in Precious Metals
is CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil is now Below $70
Which is in Danger zone

607 - 615 shall remain Buying zone for Gold

SUPRISE DATA

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BIG SUPRISE
LOOK AT EUR/USD it shooted up a little

DOLLAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE BOARD
Gold Pushed little high as well
Now it shall Stablize a little,
And new Buying interest shall Emerge

Few Traders would likely to wait for 18:00 GMT - Minutes of FOMC Meeting

Consumer Confidence Data in few minutes

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In 8 Minutes from now we have Consumer Confidence Data
14:00 GMT
Expected 102.5

Keep Eyes Open.

Do look EUR/USD as well for further signs of USD weakness or Strength

Gold Looking to bounce again from 612

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Gold went back to 612 and looks bouncing again.
Main EYE is towards Consumer Confidence which will be out at 14:00 GMT

There is good buying interest right now for gold at 607 - 615 levels.

Dollar Lower

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The dollar is modestly lower against its major counterparts early in New York Tuesday, as the market looks for direction from data and news during the US session. FOMC minutes from last Fed meeting will be scrutinized to see whether Fed is likely to remain paused, and consumer confidence will be watched for any indication slowdown in housing is hurting U.S. consumer.

Iran Update

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Wire reporting that Iran's Ahmadinejad has proposed a live TV debate with US President Bush.

Japenese Minister push EUR/JPY down again

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Comments from Japanese finance minister Tanigaki that he wanted to carefully watch the JPY's moves versus EUR triggered the dip to a session low of 149.48. Earlier in the session the cross printed a fresh all-time high of 150.07, now it trades at 149.56 with stops reported below 149.45

EUR/JPY - UPDATE

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As we mentioned just few minutes back EUR/JPY there is buying Interest at 149.65 and it moved Up from that level right now trading 149.77

EQUITIES TALK

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S&P 500 probing the 1300 mark as DAX clears 5847.
But Nikkei still not able to put together a convincing rally, adding 0.8 pct at 15890.
ASX 200 up 0.8 pct.

Oil-related shares not contributing to gains as crude oil went for $70/brl. Growth/cyclical sector leading gainers.

Apple in a funk, dropping another 2.6 pct. Several issues: battery recalls, options backdating and MSFT’s IPOD initiative.

For the upcoming day, we do expect more activity with both US consumer confidence (14.00 GMT) and FOMC minutes (18.00). Swedish retail sales (7.30) also of note.

FOREX TECHNICAL LEVELS

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EURUSD - Remains marginally firmer this morning having found support at 1.2723 on Aug 25 low. The recent rejection off 1.2941, on Aug 21 and subsequent sell-off however is expected to weigh overall with potential seen for a resumption of weakness and a test of the next key support at 1.2695, Aug 14 low. A break of this level would be seen as a significant bearish development while on the topside, clearance of 1.2941 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDCHF - Recent consolidative price action has now defined 1.2446, Aug 15 high and 1.2183, Aug 21 low as the key near-term directional parameters.

GBPUSD - while the rebound from 1.8775, Aug 18 low was encouraging for aspiring Sterling bulls, only a move beyond 1.9024, Aug 16 peak would undermine our bearish bias expecting a break of 1.8775.

USDJPY - Is expected to maintain a positive theme while support at 116.09, Aug 23 low remains intact. The next upside trigger is located at 117.42, Aug 25 high where a break would pave the way for strength towards 117.89, the July 19 high.

USDCAD - maintains a bearish bias ahead of support at 1.1050, Aug 23 low. A break of this level is expected to yield further downside towards 1.1033, Jun 21 low en route to 1.0962, Jun 12 base and ultimately 1.0932, May 31 trend low. Immediate heavy tone dominates below 1.1161, Aug 23 high.

AUDUSD - continues to appear vulnerable having now probed former support at 0.7562, the Aug 18 low. Intraday support lies at 0.7551, Aug 25 low where a break would expose 0.7524 and 0.7479, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracements of the 0.7406 to 0.7715 advance.

EURCHF - Trapped between 1.5759 and 1.5831: EURCHF remains consolidative between the 1.5759 low from Aug 17 and 1.5831 trend high from Aug 16. In lieu of sub-1.5759 price action, the trend remains up, with the focus on 1.5859 Apr 4 high. Weakness below 1.5759 would be necessary to threaten this view and instead re-focus attention on the 1.5697 reaction low from Jul 31.

EURJPY - remains in clear bullish path with the cross now testing the psychological 150.00 level, a break would pave the way for 150.48 marking the top of a short-term bull channel. 148.48, the Aug 24 low marks support.

EURGBP - still vulnerable following the sell-off last week from Aug 21's 0.6831 high that resulted in a break of a cluster of support between Aug 17's 0.6769 low and 0.6762, the 61.8% retracement of the 0.6720 to 0.6831 advance. In lieu of 0.6831+ price action, the trend remains bearish, with the focus on 0.6720, Aug 9 low.

CHFSEK - Long from 5.8450, targeting 6.9200, with stop-loss at 5.8000.

FOREX MARKET - JPY

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Labour market data for July this morning came out in line with expectations with the unemployment rate dipping slightly to 4.1% from 4.2% in June.

However the yen continues to be very weak against the euro after last week's much lower than expected CPI result on Friday caused Japanese yields to slump.

The unemployment and CPI data support our economists stance that the BoJ won't lift rates until Q1 next year now following last week's re-weighting of Japan's CPI survey.

But we think the yen will still benefit from USD weakness as the market starts to focus on the Fed cutting rates next year and as attention switches to structural issues and global imbalances during September's G7 and IMF meetings.

Good Morning to All Traders

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Good Morning to All Traders / Clients,
Welcoming European Clients on the Public Holiday yesterday, we hope they did enjoyed :)

We hope you had a nice Breakfast, and ready for todays Lovely trading Session.
We see lots of Choppy trading in Equities at the current moment.

We have Few US Datas Coming up tonight

14:00 GMT - Consumer Confidence
17:30 GMT - Fed Fisher Speaks in San Antonio
18:00 GMT - Minutes of Aug8 FOMC MEETING

Gold did push a Little from the Level we mentioned earlier, where it SHOULD bounce, and thats how it reacted.
Current price is 617 range, Little Choppy, Waiting for NY Morning, However many have eyes on todays Minutes of Aug8 FOMC Meeting

EUR/USD gave a nice push upwards, in result Slamming the Dollar,

Yesterday Pull Back for Precious Metals, was the Crude Oil , which fall around $2, However Precious Metals remained there own Valuable support.

We shall Advice further, As the lovely Sunny Day passes by.

Thank You

EUR/JPY - Buying Interest in the Mkt

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We hear Buying interest for EUR/JPY at around 149.65 levels,

Monday, August 28, 2006

Gold Bounces from the Level we mentioned

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As we Analyzed we mentioned 610-612 would touch and Bounce.
Our Analysis team has been ranked TOP by Various Banks.
And we are here to Serve you.

We shall Advice further, Keep eyes Open..

Cheers

Looks like a bounce Appears

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We Assume gold might bounce up now
As it did touch 612 level.
It looks like its giving a new Buying interest.

Buzz - Gold Update

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The Buzz we also hear today from the Market is some traders are closing there positions Ahead of 31st Iran discussion

So its just short term reaction today as we feel.

Tommorrow Asia and Europe will grasp new Buying interests as it looks.

607 - 615 is a nice buying interest.

Precious Metals Update

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There shouldnt be any Panicky Issues
Gold/Silver has moved a Big down,.
Its Partners Crude Oil has also moved down, which is also giving it down Push.

615 level shall be a level to hold
Or 610 level could be touched again for Gold, where it could pump up.
If we see 603 previous, Bounced up
607 Bounced up
We could see 610 - 612 Bouncing up

The Main key is Crude Oil is giving it a Push Down

FUTURES GOLD UPDATE

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FUTURES Gold is trading in a triangle today between 630.70 / 632.40 in a very low volume session

Main to watch for Oil - acting as a proxy for Infaltion for Gold Price Direction

Support 626 on a break of 628.50

Resistance 635.50

Few Parts of Europe on Public Holiday

0 Comments for:

We aint seeing much Liquidity today Europe Morning
There is Public Holiday in few parts of Europe, thats why we didnt see much happening at all today fine sunny morning.

We dont expect Much Heavy things to happen in NY time, as no Data is Available as well, And could see few movements in Precious Metals.

We shall Advice further

Friday, August 25, 2006

Market discussion

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We dont see much market reaction at the exchange, Very little volume.
As we mentioned, many would be sleeping today, everyone were watching the News Re: Bernake Speech
But nothing came re: Monetary discussion.
So we wont consider it much Mkt Moving.

And Gold is holding very good at its support all time this week, Which is Very wonderful. And it looks like next week we might have chances for rise, as 31st we have Iran presenting news Re: Nuclear, What do you expect, they will say ok we will talk, and not prepare Nuclear, there will be ofcourse some challenging news, which shall give boost to precious Metals

If we analyze Crude Oil for a moment, we are looking for a nice run on this Energy, Which supports precious Metals.

USD strength today is just short term,

And we can see, little movements today, due to very less Volume.

We see like 50% seller, 50% Buyers, so the prices will go up and down, in tight ranges.

Shall Advice further.

Not much Mkt mover

0 Comments for:

Not big Market mover.
He really wants traders to get confused, that really Economist thinking..
He will just give hints for time being.

Well we didnt see Much Happening.

Short term we see Crude oil going up. Due to hurriances and all.

Well it looks like Volatitliy movements in USD, causing the housing effects.

Gold stands in its support.

EUR/USD looks like gaining few buyers in.

At the present moment, we see Everything fine.

If something was really worse, you would see HEAVY SELLING.
Just a little Hiccups. thats all we see.

Speech didnt scare the market much

0 Comments for:

His Speech didnt scare the market much

Crude Oil giving a Push, USD is getting strength. And As well Equities, Much Buzz going on.
Now it doesnt looks like same big movements like we had when Greenspan did talk.

It looks like USD strenght is coming in due to Volatility we assume..

Bernake wont say anything relating to financial things, He seems to speak out everything when they have meeting, looks like he wont disclose everything what really is he doing.

Gold Holding its support

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Gold holding in its SUpport
Thats good

EUR/USD made a little dip, looks like going to 1.2695 - Support lane

Bernake Live

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Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech contains no comments about the current economy or rate policy. Instead, he focus on issues related to globalization.

He says "economic and technological changes are likely to shrink effective distances still further in coming years, creating the potential for continued improvements in productivity and living standards and for a reduction in global poverty."

He added "the challenge for policymakers is to ensure that the benefits of global economic integration are sufficiently widely shared...that a consensus for a welfare-enhancing change can be obtained."

Market Waits for What ?

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Where do the traders have there Ears stick at?
Where do the traders have there Eyes Stick at?
Where do the traders have there Mouse click set at?

Read Below, Could be an Interesting day today, If All the traders are READY. Maybe many could be sleeping, due to end of week, :)

Main Buzz today is 14:00 GMT, when Bernake Speaks.

Keep Eye in these things, Cause we did see big movements when Greenspan gave similar topic speech

EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
And few other currencies.

Gold, Silver shall be most watched in Precious Metals

Do watch Equities,

People are little Quiet, but we might not expect same big movements like Before, as many traders still in Vacation.

We hope not to see SPIKES all over the Board, if you remember, we happened to see this few backs that, which frustrated many traders, And EUR/USD took a dip and recovered again, due to covering all the orders.

Gold Stayed at the Support Boundary, where we mentioned 618-622 (REMEMBER this support) Its the Key One.

OUr Analysis team has found out the Key of how Gold is reacting, we need to see next week, how it goes, and then we will publicly mention, on our Analysis.

Cheers, we shall advice further

Nickel Update

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A total 9,381 lots or 56,286 metric tons of nickel is open on the London Metal Exchange November delivery date and a single customer or a consortium of its customers has 20% to 30% of this open interest, LME data shows. That's around 11,000 to 17,000 tons, or $328 to $508 million at current prices.
LME three-month nickel trades at $29,350/ton, just shy of its Wednesday all-time high of $30,000/ton

Forex Europe Market Update

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USDJPY moved higher in Asia today following Japan's weaker than expected CPI release seeing the pair trace out a 116.43 - 116.92 range. In contrast, EURUSD traded a relatively tight 1.2748 - 1.2782 ahead of today's Jackson Hole symposium.

Indeed the focus for the USD today will be on Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole titled "The New Economic Geography and Policy Implications". Judging by the speech title, it has the potential to discuss issues of importance in the FX markets, namely global imbalances and the policies that affect them.

It is worth remembering the impact that Greenspan had on the market in November 2004 when he discussed global imbalances. Greenspan's speech helped create the impression that US officials were actively encouraging a weaker USD and contributed to huge moves in the USD against Asian currencies. While it's unlikely that tonight's speech by Bernanke would have the same impact, it could help to set the tone for the USD heading into September event risks.

We remain of the view that with the Fed tightening cycle having ended, the risks have increased that the markets will place less emphasis on interest rate differentials and more emphasis on global imbalance considerations.

As such we have a bearish profile for the USD and target EURUSD at.1.3000 and USDJPY at 114 over 1 month.

Looking ahead and there are no scheduled economic data releases of note, and hence focus will be purely Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole at 1400 GMT.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Gold Hold itself at the Support

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Gold was able to hold at the Support Boundaries we mentioned.
Its still at that Support, However, we need to see how European Morning reacts over such price.
Asian Traders, helped and gave a small Push.

PLay in tight ranges, keep good margin, If you have Holding Power for any Gold you have bought try to mantain it, thats the key today.

Next week we have so many interesting things coming in, which might assist Precious Metals with a run

Shall advice further.

Tropical wave

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Tropical Wave moving through the Lesser Antilles has developed into a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.
Through Friday its expected to increase in strength and develop into a tropical storm (winds > 39 mph).

Crude Oil around $1 up

Market Buzz

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Much Discussion in Market going on regarding Bernake Speaking Live tommorrow at 14:00 GMT
And there shall be much focus tommorrow on it.
And this could be a Little Market moving.
As due to many traders are in Vacations as well.

Gold/Silver fall, came due to Mid-East tensions are short-term eased up, Crude Oil playing in it lows, Dollar strength.
There is Much Buying interest flowing for Gold at 605, 610, 615 levels.

However, presently Gold is Floating in its Support Boundaries 618-622.
Crossing would make it go 610 levels, to Gain the momentum.

Gold Update

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Right now Gold is playing at around support area 618-622
If it crosses shall go around 610 Again

The Technical Picture isnt looking Satisfactory, as mentioned earlier.

We need to see if the Support level be able to hold

Energy Update..

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A powerful tropical wave that has the potential to become a serious hurricane is sweeping through the Lesser Antilles Islands today, bringing tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rains.
According to computer models its headed towards the Mexican Gulf, as we see.

New Home Sales Gives a fall

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New Home Sales gives a fall as always.

Gold, Silver would move up.
They might take a small dip, to technical Correct itself, as its not yet technicall correct.
Could go back to its Support lane, And shall move ahead.

Market will adjust for few minutes, And then start its working.
As we dont have any more Datas today. So market will adjust, and start the gradual Push.

If you see yesterday, how was the reaction, same thing like would happen today.
If you remember when Existing Home Sales came, it went down, And then started pushing up slightly again.
Could see the same thing, as Technical Picture isnt yet satisfactory.

New Home Sales

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New Home Sales coming out in 10 Minutes
If Higher Number Support a Sell EUR/USD, GBP/USD
If lower Number supports a Buy
And we shall see how it reacts with Durable Goods Orders came earlier
Durable Goods were strong, if Home Sales come out as Strong too, We could see Sell going on

EUR/USD - Update

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Stuck around the $1.2825 area and few of the traders mention at the current level it doesnt interest them and little interest come to hold position at current levels.

Pair has traded $1.2810/40 in the last hour or two and appears to find good supply in the upper half of that range.


New Home Sales, will give further signs.
Around 30 minutes now

14:00 GMT

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Market Awaits

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Market Awaits for New Home Sales.
We had yesterday Existing Home Sales.

After the Home Sales, further solid movements shall intend to appear.

Gold dropped back, As well as EUR/USD, GPB/USD

BUt recovering back again.

Home Sales, coming out at 14:00 GMT, will give further signals.

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Euro/USD

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Eases down to $1.2815 area in the wake of the early U.S. data, the euro able to squeeze out marginal fresh highs for the day atop $1.2840 before falling back. Area of overnight lows at 1.2750 said to hold bids but one trader suggesting a few buyers may emerge ahead of $1.2800 now given the inspired rebound. Offers $1.2850/60.

Treasurys give a fall after Durable Goods

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Treasurys fall after durable goods data that showed a bigger-than-expected decline, marking the second day in a row that Treasurys sold off after data that at first blush looked as if it would be supportive for government securities. Civilian aircraft orders fell by 10.0% and motor vehicle and parts orders fell by 9.0%. Excluding transportation, all other orders were up 0.5%.

The 10-Yr yield, which had hit 4.79%, its lowest level since the end of March, right before the data, inched back up to 4.81% afterwards.

Figure little Strong

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Well the figures were little strong
And as we mentioned.
If data were weak, Buy GBP/USD, EUR/USD

But they were strong

EUR/USD fell around 30 Pips

Now we shall see for 14:00 GMT - New Home Sales, shall be a nice one to watch.

Gold Futures are +1.9 up

Data: 20 minutes remain

0 Comments for:

20 minutes left for the datas to come.

Weak numbers shall make USD weak,

BUY GBP/USD, BUY EUR/USD
All will move up

Precious Metals are likely to move up as well

Crude Oil in Push today.

Datas coming today for US

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Market is quite in Range Trading, before the Datas Coming out at 12:30 as well as 14:00 GMT

12:30 GMT we have the following

Durable Goods Orders (Jul) Expected: -0.6%
Durable Ex. Transportation (Jul) Expected: 0.3%
Initial Jobless Claims Expected : 315K

14:00 GMT we have the following

New Home Sales (MoM) Expected : -2.7%
New Home Sales Expected : 1100K

14:30 GMT we have the following
EIA Natural Gas Storage

Forex Market Update -

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The USD trended slightly higher overnight, posting a 1.2758-1.2793 range against the EUR and a tight 116.30-116.52 range against the JPY.
In the news, the US warned that Iran's response to the UN conditions was short of requirements and is now consulting with the rest of the Security Council on what to do next.

The Nikkei lost close to 1% overnight with cyclical stocks under pressure following the weaker than expected US housing data.
Crude oil recovered in Asian trading hours while at -0.62 (vs. - 0.76 on August 21).

High yielders' and emerging market spreads to US Treasuries have widened and gold has started to rise.

Today we have Important Datas, durable goods orders for July are due at 1230 GMT and the market expects a decline of 0.5% m/m, following the 2.9% m/m rise in June. Jobless claims for the week ending July 19 are due at 1230 GMT.

Energy Future Update

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Yesterday Crude Oil weakness was contained at $71.15 strong support, and is still trading in a 2 usd range $71.00/73.40. We do not have much clarity on the Iranian issue, so we could see some sideway trading ahead as traders are reluctant to short ahead of a long week end in the UK.

Precious Metals Futures Update

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Precious metals are range trading and going nowhere in a typical end of August pattern.

For Gold, watch out the USD for price direction, on a break of $ 633.50 first target would be $637.30/639 though a failure to break this resistance will indicate a retracement to $615. Gold recent underperformance to Silver is due to its correlation with a weaker Crude Oil and some threat of central Bank sales.

Silver is trying to break its 3-week sideways trading with the upper range at $12.70. We have a neutral stance for now.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Rumours in the Market

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Rumours going around in the market that "informed sources" say "Iran will announce Nuclear breakthrough and confirm Iran's Position as Nuclear Country".
This is likely behind the Stronger USD.

Due to Fall in Crude Oil price
and Strong USD
Its pulling back Precious Metal

Gold should stand around the same Support Levels as mentioned earlier
618-622 levels

NYMEX Floor - Lots of Selling

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We are seeing loads of selling sounds right now in NYMEX trading floor

The data has been very weak.

Shall Advice further.

SELL CRUDE OIL

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SELL CRUDE OIL

Comex - New Fresh Buying entering today

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We had a word with one of our Partners in Comex floor.
And talks going on of new fresh Buying shall come today

And as we mentioned earlier, Buy at dips Again.

5 mins now for US Crude Oil Data - 14:30 GMT

Gold doing Technical Dip

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Gold doing a technical Dip.
Buy in Dips.

This is All the game of making the traders confusing.
A weak housing data gives signal of USD weakness.
Which shall boost the Metal prices.

Due to Technical un-correction, we see little correction Appearing.

Next data coming at 14:30 -

Data Out - Bad for USD,

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Data is out
As we assumed, came below expected.
Dollar is Weak now.
And Gold will try to cut 630 level.
It might take a Little dip, to technical correct itself, and push up high then.

Buy at dip, is the Key thing Again today.

And this data is BULLISH for all Equity traders,
If you are a Dow Jones, Nasdaq Trader.
It shall be moving much higher


Next data now for Crude Oil - 14:30 GMT

Shall Advice further

US Data - will be out in 15 minutes

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In 15 Minutes we have US Existing Home Sales for July will be out.
6.55 M is Expected.
Across the summer, we have seen weak housing data out of the US in turn prompting rallies in stocks and fixed income

A weak reading today should put pressure on the USD

630 looks touching

0 Comments for:

As we mentioned earlier Yesterday as well today Morning.
We felt today there could be Slight Push
NY Traders are giving it a Push for Gold.
And Silver is doing its best Job.

And as we mentioned earlier we felt 630 could be touched Already.
It touched 629 level, trying its best to move high.

Shall see how the data comes. at 14:00 GMT

If you have Long positon
Quicky Traders - Dont Wait, Book Profits
Weekly Traders - We feel there could be slight push by end of the week. If Fundamental things do also help
Long term Holders - Keep Holding, And buy At dips. Long term is BULLISH for Precious Metals - NO DOUBT!!

Cheers

Shall Advice further.

US/Canada Market Update

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US events start early, with the MBA Mortgage Application Index for the August 18 week at 1100GMT.

Canadian leading indicators for July are also due at 1230GMT.

US data at 1400GMT includes BLS mass layoffs for July as well as the NAR existing home sales data for July, which is expected to show that the pace of existing home sales slowed to a 6.55 million annual rate in July, the fourth consecutive decline. Supply continues to outpace demand, depressing home sales prices. The falling prices, combined with more stable rates, are keeping buyers on the fence until prices drop further.

Finally, the weekly crude oil stocks data is due at 1430GMT.

Energy Market Update - New Threat approaching

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New threat approaching the Lesser Antilles.
A tropical waver near 10N 47W has developed some rotation at mid levels, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week.
The direction is set towards the Mexican Gulf, and any increase in strength will add support through out the energy market.

Equities Update

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Volumes remain appalling and the market clearly lacks a theme to trade on. As the market stalls, we think a new theme is developing in equities. We’ve rallied up here believing “Fed is done” and with futures pricing in cuts this year, “slowing growth” might take center stage.

Housing data is very important as roughly 70 percent of US GDP is consumer-related. US consumers have been on a 4-year spending spree funded by home equity and so if housing continues to weaken, cyclical groups stand to underperform.

DAX: support at 5750, a close below targets 5550. Must break 5847 to rally further. Daily technicals bearish.
FTSE: 5880 should continue to offer support. If broken, 5650 is possible. Daily technical bullish.

Watch out for US existing home sales data at 14.00 GMT today.

Europe Forex Market Update

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The US dollar strengthened slightly overnight, trading in a narrow 1.2784-1.2813 range against EUR, though, and in an equally tight 116.28-116.56 range against the JPY. In the news, Iranian news agency Fars reports that Iran's proposal on nuclear issues called for further discussion, but rejected calls for it to suspend its nuclear activities.

The UN deadline for compliance is August 31. Oil prices edged slightly lower in Asian trading hours, not helping stocks where profit taking took the Nikkei 0.3% lower.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said on Tuesday that the Fed may need to resume raising rates with inflation staying above his "comfort zone" and that "some additional firming may yet be necessary to bring inflation back into the comfort zone with a reasonable period".

Atlanta Reserve Bank President Jack Gynn, however, expects inflation to decline in coming months and said on Tuesday that monetary policy was "properly calibrated".

We believe that the US economy is indeed slowing sufficiently to cap inflationary pressures and hence we stick with our view that the Fed tightening cycle has most likely ended, making us buyers on dips in EURUSD.

Housing market data will be a key influential factor in coming months, and existing home sales for July are due later today at 1400 GMT. The market expects a median 6.55 mln units, down from 6.52 mln units in June, and any disappointment will likely help the USD to weaken.

Morning Update : Precious Metals

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Today Asian Morning, We saw Asian players bringing the price back to Support lane Boundaries.
We saw a nice double bottom at the support, Gaining nice Technical Support at such levels.

London Morning, giving a nice push to Gold, EUR/USD

As we mentioned yesterday , RE: TODAY, we could see some push.

However, Its Technically Speaking, not Fundamental, And due to yesterday Iran report, they mentioned they would like to Talk,.

Now, traders could feel some kind of easing for short term, However, some traders wont take that report much heavily, than the one on 31st this month.

Crude Oil in Asia Morning did a little drop, due to same above reasons, which in result gave Gold and Silver to bounce back to its Support lanes.

A Solid Push Emerging as we speak. And if Such push remains in NY Morning time, We feel 630 Level shall be touched and crossed.

Remember, Book Profit Quick, then rather waiting for Losses :)

We shall Advice further.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Gold mantained a Nice Support

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As we mentioned earlier, Gold mantains a nice stream of support
at 618-622 levels
We hope you did go long.
And would be in Profits already

BRAVO

We think tommorrow it could go little high as well.

Our team shall advice a bit later on tommorrows view.

Iran Updates

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Iran is probably calculating that any move toward sanctions would start with modest steps, such as travel bans on officials or asset freezes, which it could tolerate because the country's coffers are brimming with petrodollars.

Washington says it wants a diplomatic solution to the standoff but has refused to rule out military action.

Diplomats close to the U.N. nuclear watchdog said its inspectors were recently denied access to an underground site under construction where Iran plans industrial- scale production of enriched uranium

ECB member Weber - provides Hawkish Comments.

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ECB Member Weber offers very Hawkish Commentary in an Exclusive interview with Reuters. He Said EuroZone Monetary Policy was still very Accommodative, and that the ECB would need to keep on removing the monetary Stimulus.
Said 2006 growth could be better than previously expected.

Which was moving EUR/USD - Zig Zag.

Gold shouldnt move below 618/620

0 Comments for:

We Shouldnt see gold to go below 620 today
Or shall make it go a little more down.

As it stands, Nice support Boundary ranging at around 618 to 622 levels.

Buy at dips is the name of the game

TECHNICAL PICTURE - GOLD

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As we analyzed last week, for a bull ride to happen this week.
Its moving the way as we wanted it to lead.
However, we have given a Technical Picture, And we hope if Fundamental things come hand to hand, we could see a nice momentum. And All the game of Fundamental.

Crude Oil Rally is a nice support as well

Today dip, is considering of people closing there positions, as people were awaiting Iran updates, and Slight profit taking, due to Long positions held beginning of the week.

Shall Advice further things..

Iran has ofered new Formula..

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Iran has offered a "new formula" on its nuclear program to resolve the disputes , but no details yet on what that is.

Iran has handed its response

0 Comments for:

Iran has handed its response to the diplomats


Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, gave the response to foreign envoys representing the six co-sponsors of the package in Tehran.

"I expect a very ambiguous answer," said one Western diplomat.

Al-Alam (Iran's state-run Arabic-language Television Reports) gave no details of the reply which Iranian officials have already indicated is unlikely to address a key demand by the U.N. Security Council that it suspend uranium enrichment work by an August 31 deadline or face the threat of sanctions.

Further news are yet to come.

Further reports awaited by Iran for the moment

0 Comments for:

Further Reports are being Awaited.


Refusing to suspend the work, which Iran says is aimed only at generating electricity but which the West sees as a disguised bid for atom bombs, would be tantamount to rejecting the package of incentives offered in return, Western diplomats say.
"We are not treating (Tuesday) as a deadline because it is not the Security Council deadline," one Western diplomat said. "If Iran flatly refuses to suspend enrichment, then there will, fairly soon, be more talks in the Security Council."
"Iran's response contains some questions, but Tehran has given a comprehensive answer to all the issues,"

Market Awaits for Iran

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All the Markets waiting for Iran

US Equities look to go down.
Gold/Silver in Profit taking scenerio, people closing there position from the long position they kept yesterday

We shall Publish the information ASAP, there is news from Iran.

Right now there response is little delayed.

BE PREPARED - 12:30 GMT

0 Comments for:

Iran is due to deliever its written report at 12:30 GMT to European proposals on Nuclear program
Be out here.
We shall Be presenting all details

12:30 GMT - Iran will reply

0 Comments for:

At 12:30 GMT, Iran will hand its reply to the suggested solution to the Uranium Enrichment issue to the Ambassadors of the relevant countries in Tehran.
Its not expected that Iran will discontinue Uranium Enrichment.
A Central Demand of Proposal Issued by Russia, China, France, Britain, Germany and the USA.

Crude Oil Update

0 Comments for:

There have been reports this morning that workers on a Romanian oil rig in Iranian waters said they earlier came under attack from an Iranian helicopter and that Iranian troops occupied the rig. The owning company reportedly said they had not heard from anyone on the rig since the reports around 0615GMT.

Shall push the crude oil price.

Crude Oil Futures Update

0 Comments for:

Crude Oil: WIth Friday strong rejection from 71.00, the bullish trend continued and as we suggested we could see a nice bull ride, next short term resistance is in the 74.00 area and support around 72.50.

We could see some choppy trading ahead as the Market waits for news from Iran. The 4 usd jump in Crude Oil we had these last two trading sessions is only due to the risk going into the UN deadlines.

Crude oil looks to trade back to 80 in coming days.

Precious Metals Futures Update

0 Comments for:

Precious metals are expected to focus on the Iranian answer to the security council as they placed themselves an Aug 22nd deadline. UN deadline is the 31st.

Gold - $635 has been taken out and the 642 resistance is a near term target, we could have a bit of consolidation between 628.50/632.50 before testing this level.
Watch closely the Eur/Usd for more clues.

Silver needs to break the 12.45 resistance fairly soon to be able to target 13.00 otherwise we would have a double top and a risk of retracement

ZEW Data rumour

0 Comments for:

Today we have

ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (E-Z)
Which shall be a moving Data towards EUR/USD

And As rumour and market buzz goes on.
They say today it will be much worse than expected.
Consensus is +15 but the rumour says, believe it or not, -5.

Its releasing at 9:00 GMT

Keep an Eye on it

Monday, August 21, 2006

IRAN ISSUE - 22nd is a Response Day to Western Incentives

0 Comments for:

Iran announced it would reply to the Western incentives on its nuclear program on August 22, the first time it has given a precise date after weeks of being accused of stalling.

Market is still for long, and awaiting for such response from Iran.

Thursday's statement by Supreme National Security Council suggested Iran was likely to reject the main point of the West's proposals, the imposition of a long-term moratorium on uranium enrichment.

The statement said Iran "has made plans to produce part of its nuclear fuel needs inside the country and is making efforts to meet its required fuel" - a process that entails enriching uranium for use in nuclear reactors.

The council also warned that Iran would retaliate if the world tried to punish it over its nuclear program.


There Response can come anytime today, And market eyes for it.

Crude Oil in Good rally

0 Comments for:

Crude Oil in Good rally
And as we mentioned earlier last week, to buy crude oil.
Traders shall be in profits.

Main Issue is Iran these days.

We shall advice further.

Gold Should stand above 620/622

1 Comments for:

Gold Should stand above 620/622 today

We see a nice bull channel developing, However due to liquidity remain low overall this month, due to summer vacations, we see 635/640 levels to be resistance areas.

THANKS TO ALL TRADERS

0 Comments for:

Thank you all traders,
Our Management has recieved many E-mails today. And we are glad.

And we hope people did went long.
Weekly Picture - It looks bull.

We assume today it should stay above 620.

Thanks
Management

Gold Is on a nice ride as we decided.

0 Comments for:

Gold has a nice ride going on.
Its leading the way as we have been expecting.
There are many Fundamental Supports growing
IRAN is developing key Support again in the market.
And this week and next week is crucial relating to it. The words coming out from the President and there Meeting, Will make the move in the market very Nicely and Heavily ..

JUST NOW A NEWS CAME
IRAN REFUSES UN ACCESS TO NUCLEAR SITE -


Today was a nice ride, EUR/USD atleast manages to come up at 1.29 - Helping to get suport there.
And as we got inside, Swiss Big NAME bought 200 Million EUR/USD all on stops, to break the barrier.

USD is Weak

Shall Advice further

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Gold Trades in Asia Morning as analyzed

0 Comments for:

Gold Trades in Asia Morning as we analyzed last week.
We are seeing slight push coming in Asia morning, however liquidity remains low.

Weekly traders :-
We expect Gold to push high this week, however, if they can get long, and keep enough margin,
As if any Data, that gives a drawback fall, you should have enough margin to handle it.

However, US Dollar weakness in Asia morning remains down the floor.

Shall Advice further

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Gold looks bull next week

0 Comments for:

It looks next week we shall see Gold to push high.
Gold last time hit 603
And this time it hit 607 range, and Bounced back. This is what we have been expecting it, And if Gold Matains a push high on Monday Asian Morning, we will see a nice Bull Channel develop.
Technically it looks there are chances for a Bull run next week.
We hope fundamentals arent Adverse in relation to Gold price.

We will give further Guidance in short via Charting.

Friday, August 18, 2006

Data came lower as we expected.

0 Comments for:

U.of Michigan Confidence came Lower than expected.
As we passed earlier the Market Insight Buzz.

EUR/USD moving slightly upside as mentioned

Shall Advice further, shaky Market right now, So have enough Margins.

Market Buzz : U. Of Michigan Confidence

0 Comments for:

Market Buzz

As we hear, U. Of michigan Confidence can be Weaker, and if its TRUE
Eur/USD shall Spike up

Lets wait 15 Minutes, and see, what figure comes out

Cheerz.

Data coming out in 15 minutes

0 Comments for:

U.of Michigan Confidence coming at 13:45 GMT
Do watch for it.
Shall give movements to USD, and in return to Gold/Silver as well
Do look at EUR/USD as well

Around 15 minutes left.

NY traders reacting nicely for Gold

0 Comments for:

NY Traders reacting nicely after yesterdays Pull back.
U. Of Michigan Confidence in 45 minutes.
Shall see how USD reacts after the release of it.

Gold gradually pushing higher, if such push higher remains, We shall see the same pattern as we discussed yesterday

Comex Gold in Recovering Process

0 Comments for:

Comex gold has recovered from its overnight lows.

It's getting a little bounce from pre-weekend short covering
The metal is shaking off a stronger dollar, which had contributed to the overnight weakness
Gold may be drawing some support from stronger silver in the wake of the Escondida strike.

Gold is trading a little bit with oil as well, which is up noticeably this morning.

December gold is up $1 to $626.30 after an overnight low of $621.70, while September silver has added 11.5 cents to $12.11.

Comex Gold Recovers

0 Comments for:

Comex gold has recovered from its overnight lows.

It's getting a little bounce from pre-weekend short covering
The metal is shaking off a stronger dollar, which had contributed to the overnight weakness
Gold may be drawing some support from stronger silver in the wake of the Escondida strike.

Gold is trading a little bit with oil as well, which is up noticeably this morning.

December gold is up $1 to $626.30 after an overnight low of $621.70, while September silver has added 11.5 cents to $12.11.

Crude Oil Push higher slightly

0 Comments for:

Crude Oil Pushing high slightly

However, Gold remains STUCK since Asia Morning.
We fear, if this place it cant hold.
603 is definately going to be touched.
We shall see how NY traders react today, in 20-30 minutes from now.

Crude Oil Technical Update

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Technically Crude Oil, shall move upwards, as it lies in a very Strong support
Tight Stops can be kepts at 68 levels.
And target is 72 level up.
Iran and North Korea shall give it boost.
And Technical boost as well

Cheers.

Crude Oil Trade idea.

2 Comments for:

Buy Crude Oil target for $72/73
Stop 69

We feel Crude Oil to move high now, As It was lying at technical levels, and market focuses towards Iran, and recent update news of North Korea.

USD Mixed ahead of U. of Michigan Confiden

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The USD is mixed ahead of the latest US Michigan confidence data, which some fear has downside risks due to recent weakness in the US labor and housing markets. The EUR is a little higher at $1.2835 after Germany reported strong PPI numbers for last month. The USD is a tad lower at Y115.91 with the market wary of a report that North Korea is planning an underground nuclear test. The GBP is down marginally at $1.8838

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Crude Oil Prices rise as trade switch focus to Iran

0 Comments for:

Prices were higher in Asian as traders switched focus to Iran, which has until August 31 to halt its uranium enrichment programme or face the threat of UN sanctions.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for September delivery was up $0.43 at $70.49 a barrel from its close of $70.06 in the US Thursday, its lowest finish in almost two months.

EUR/USD may rise as Traders keep buying

0 Comments for:

EUR/USD may rise as players keep buying EUR on speculation that ECB rates hikes will continue, sharp contrast with USD, where players unsure about Fed's further tightening.
As there are no major economic data due today, players will trade on technicals.
Tips 1.2800-1.2850 range in Asia, last 1.2831 on EBS.

EUR may also strengthen vs JPY, as people buying to take advantage of interest rate gap. Tips 148.50-148.90 band in Asia, last 148.70 on EBS

Inside News - North Korea Preparing an Underground Nuclear Test

0 Comments for:

We just got an Inside news.
That North Korea is preparing for an Undergound Nuclear test.

And USD/JPY spiking up as reuters passes the news.

This could give slight push to Gold/Silver as well

Shall advice further

Update news

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Sources note headlines of an airport evacuation in W. Virginia in response to a positive test result on passenger luggage that may indicate presence of an explosive. Traders say there is no FX response to the news.

Gold Discussion.. What really happened today?

0 Comments for:

Gold, Silver both have gone way Down towards OverSold Area.
And It shall pace up a movement upwards.
It looks Asia Market shall react nicely and buy on such prices.

Now lets Look together.

Look at 23rd - Daily Chart, what makes you feel by looking at that?
Down Ward Push.. Were you Panicky that time?
Wel that was a Correction for Bullish upwards.
And then we saw a nice push upwards, and then pull back to correct for a new bullish pattern upwards crossing previous resistance.

This is the same thing we are feeling right now.
610-612 is way Over Sold, And it should do the same thing as it did on 23rd level.

Look at Daily Chart, Its Coming in to OVer Sold,
Looking at 1 hour chart, its totally Over sold, looking Packed there.

We see a Mini Reaction today.
This is to gain good support, for a push higher.

If we see for many days, the price were totally JAMMED at same tight ranges.

Main other reason for downward push was also short term USD strength, Crude Oil prices pushing way down and due to Philly Fed (as we mentioned Earlier, do look out for this one today).

Anyway, No Panicky Issues.

We shall Advice further, more reactions.

But we still have eyes for same thing like 23rd. If not.
603 is welcoming again, thats where 23rd level rebounded back. If that level isnt able to be hold, We would say 588/590 level.

Fed Fisher giving speech

0 Comments for:

Fed Fisher says Feds Next move will depend on Economic Data

Gold shall move like 23rd July

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Clients Look at Daily Chart for Gold
23rd July.
We are looking for the same movement today
Gold currently is Way Over Sold.
And a Nice reverse should come.

If such level, isnt developed, We will see 605 level touched sure again.

Shall Advice further.

Gold shall Reverse soon very Nicely

0 Comments for:

We see Gold to reverse soon very Nicely.
It shall hit 615 or 612 (which we eye mostly right now)
And we will advice shortly, TECHNICALLY in charts, what could lead such way.

Gold is Totally in OverSold territory, and this move is considered to be Profit taking, and due to Major Down Push for Crude Oil as well.

Comex Gold/Silver Update

0 Comments for:

Comex gold and silver have been lower for most of the day and remain on the defensive.
A lot has been done due to Sell-off in Energy, which in return is affecting metals, despite the weakness in dollar.
Same Tug-War game.

Dec gold is down $6.70 to $632.30, and Sep silver is down 15.5 cents to $12.13.

USD Jumps on Strong Phila Fed Index

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The dollar jumped slightly on a much stronger-than-expected index of business activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
The Phila. Fed Index stood at 18.5 in August versus an expected 9.5, and compared to 6.0 in July.
The greenback strengthened very modestly and quickly retraced some of its gains.

Treasurys are Steady before Phila Fed

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Treasurys are steady in front end and modestly firmer out the curve ahead of Phila Fed. Economists look for a modest increase to a reading of 8.0 from 6.0 in July.

Crude Oil Critical Coming more than $1 Down

0 Comments for:

Nymex crude futures are down more than $1 and near key technical support levels above $70/bbl, a break of which could push prices significantly lower. Sep crude is now -$1.24 at $70.65; support is clustered around $70.30-$70.70.

This is the zone where a bull market correction should stop.

If it doesn't, the bullish case for a continuation of the uptrend is seriously weakened and front-month crude could drop into the low $60s. Crude futures have lost more than 10% since hitting record high of $78.40 on Jul 14, two days after outbreak of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel.

This Push Down has also brought Gold/Silver with it as well.

As we mentioned there has been a Tug of War with Gold/Silver along with USD and Crude oil.

Shall Advice further.

Dollar - Fed Reaction towards market

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One trader tuning in on the recent Fed chatter in the market and argues that while recent PPI and CPI data have been benign, the housing data suggest that the Fed may have already gone too far in its tightening cycle. That trader disagrees with the notion that the Fed needs to remain vigilant on rates/inflation, with a tightening bias. "The Fed is done," that trader declares, adding that it is also possible that the ECB and BOE may also not need to tighten further from here, given recent data that shown benign inflation and patchy economic performance in those rate areas.

Market Buzz Above. For further insight.

Around 5 minutes for Philly Fed, shall see how USD reacts after it.

Gold is back to 620 level.

0 Comments for:


Gold Comes back to around 620 level, and tris to hold there.
If gold needs to mantain its Bullish Pattern, it should push high from this level, after gaining enough Support.
We shall see how Philly Fed reactions brings foreward to USD , which in return shall react to Gold and Silver.

FED TALKS - INSIGHT BUZZ

0 Comments for:

A couple of sources say talk is making the rounds of a Medley report, chatter suggesting the gist of the report is that the Fed should be happy with recent economic data but likely will not relax from its vigilant stance. That talk said to be weighing on Tsys and may have given the dollar the very slightest of boosts

Gold couldnt hold long at 625

0 Comments for:

625 couldnt hold for long, and came towards 622 level.
Its around the same level, as it went earlier.
At these levels, it comes in to the boundary of OverSold.
We have around 1 Hour for Philly Fed, Shall see how the market reacts after that.

Gold/Silver were having Hard time to cross the resistance levels.
And now they come to low levels, to gain more support.
Its a tiny Zig-Zag game going on.
This week, was a very slow paced, tight range game.

Gold sticks at 625 levels.

0 Comments for:

As we mentioned earlier
Gold shall take a mini drop.
And shall hold at around 625 levels.
If it crosses that 620 is the level touched again

Philly Fed at 16:00 GMT
Watch out for USD, shall in return make a move for Gold/Silver too

Philly Fed coming out at 16:00 GMT

0 Comments for:

Philly Fed is coming at 16:00 GMT
Do watch out for USD movement,
Which shall move the Gold and Silver as well.

Comex Gold Following Oil

0 Comments for:

Comex gold is easing along with Oil in general.

Oil is coming off hard. It's the lowest in some time.

Sep crude is down $1.11 to $70.78 a barrel and has hit its lowest level since June 21.

There has been somewhat of a tug-of-war in the gold market lately on whether to pay more attention to softening crude or a softening dollar.

Dec gold has lost $4 to $635, and Sep silver is down 17.5 cents to $12.11

US Stocks Futures

0 Comments for:

Dow and nasdaq futures both trading in slightly negative territory ahead of the market opening, down 5 points each.

Looks like the 2-3 Days Rally upwards, seems to end with a Profit taking today.

Shall see how it opens, however looks like Stocks shall present a RED Colour on its Chart.

Gold shall take a mini push down

0 Comments for:

We feel the price to go a little down for Gold.
As we mentioned since it was having hard time to cross resistance level.
A mini - drop could come to gain support.

However we feel it to stay above 625 levels.
Crossing that will lead it to go 620 level as before.

EUR/USD is coming down as well.

Shall Advice further.

Data out. Minimal Reaction

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US Intial Jobless Claims were out at 312 vs 315 Expected
Continuing Claimes were out at 2507 vs 2475 expected

There wasnt any Heavy movements in EUR/USD, nor in gold or silver.
Minimal reaction occured.

Few other datas and Information coming in today

Fed Fischer Speaking, Leading Indicators Data.

However, USD weakness still remains.
Gold having hard time to cross its resistance boundaries. 632/634
EUR/USD having hard time to break higher, which it tested many times.
If such phase contiunes, there shall likely be a mini correction, to grab nice support, to lead upwards

We shall Advice further.

Dollar Falls, Still hurt by CPI

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The USD remains under pressure as the market continues to look for the Fed to keep rates unchanged for now after Wednesday's weaker than expected consumer price data. New figures later Thursday are unlikely to shift the negative sentiment. The EUR is up at $1.2864 while the GBP is up at $1.8983. The USD falls to Y115.33.

Forex Market Update - Dollar Remains Bearish

0 Comments for:

The US dollar has stayed weak this morning in Asia trading in a 1.2838-1.2861 range against the EUR and a 115.57-115.88 range against the JPY.

The dollar remains weak after yesterday's core CPI data came out in line with reduced expectations of a 0.2%m/m rise and housing starts continued to decline.

The data caused ten year bond yields to fall further to 4.85% while the S&P rose further to 0.77% as financial markets speculated more that the Fed funds cycle had peaked now at 5.25%.

Hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President that inflation remains the key risk to the economy failed to change the sentiment of the markets yesterday. As such we think investors should stay bearish on the greenback.

With the Fed cycle having now paused, many other central banks like the ECB, BOE, RBA and Norges Bank all raising interest rates, global imbalances becoming a focus again with the upcoming G7 and IMF meetings in Asia, the threat of Senators Schumer and Graham presenting a bill on imposing tariffs on China in September and central banks continuing to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from the greenback, the risks are clearly skewed towards a weaker USD.

The major focus today will be on the Philly Fed for August due at 1600GMT. The market expects an improvement to 8.7 from 6.0 in July. Weekly jobless claims are also due at 1230GMT, with the market expecting 315k in new claims, little changed from 319k in the week prior. Fed President Fisher speaks again at 1700 GMT on the US economy at 1730GMT.

Metals Futures Update

0 Comments for:

Gold lifted from the lows dominated by four straight losing sessions.

Today’s session is key as the market needs to decide whether yesterday was a relief rally, or a reversal.

The 50 day mvg has provided the market with necessary support and becomes key support at $632.25.

This is a key level, deciding whether Gold will "make or break" from current levels.

Silver still remains in bullish territory, however, we need to make some headway soon if we want to stay in positive momentum. Any move below $12.000 remains a good level for fresh longs.

Market is Slowly moving upwards, however, todays US Data shall give further signals of USD Weakness which in return lead nice push towards Metals.

Market OutLook

0 Comments for:

Gold leads the way as we mentioned.
As we mentioned earlier in our Charts, If you scroll down.
You can see the movements as we Analyzed.
However, we feel more USD weakness to come.
Which shall see more Push to GOLD.

Market isnt making the price go Sky upwards, its slowly slowly building support as we see.
If we recap,
We saw a nice momentum developing yesterday.
And as we see for the day, it looks price to move upwards.

For today we also have Intial Jobless Claims, continuing Claims coming in for US Economic Data coming out at 12:30 GMT.

Traders can enter now, and be in market, if market pushes down, grab it by reversing your position. Or they can await for the US Data at 12:30 GMT
However, current Outlook for the market at around 7:00 GMT we feel USD weakness and more to come.

As we mentioned yesterday RE: EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs.
We saw a nice movement, as per the direction we analyzed.


Shall Advice further on further Outlooks.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Comex Gold remain Strong

0 Comments for:

Comex gold and other precious metals remain stronger after extending overnight gains on the back of dollar weakness after a rise of just 0.2% in core U.S. CPI in July.

Comex Dec gold got as high as $642.50 and is now up $7.10 to $640. Silver has continued to build on strong dealer buying during the last 48 hours, they add. Sep silver is up 29.5 cents to $12.38 an ounce.

We did mention earlier in our chart presentation, on reaction of GOLD after CPI.

EUR/USD Position Closed with Profit
USD/JPY Position Closed with Slight Profit.

We shal Advice further.

Keep Visiting, there is so much more to come.


Cheers.

To: New Traders/clients

0 Comments for:

Dear New Traders/Clients,
Subscribe Above putting your E-mail Address, to recieve daily news letter and updates

Thanks
Management.

Market has eyes at 13:15 GMT

0 Comments for:

As we mentioned earlier and gave Charting presentation earlier.
We see Gold to climb.
As right now its trying to cut its resistance.

However Technically it looks for a Push Upwards.
And Data helps it.
Its clear, that Fed looks to be done. Shall see further.

We shall see how it reacts.

It looks right now market waits for the 13:15 GMT Data, and will react further

Cheerz. Keep Eyes on that data as well.

Fed Calls - Economy looks Right

0 Comments for:

Weaker housing and lower core inflation is further evidence the Fed's call on the economy is right.
Such a view has long been held by many in the bond market.
The inversion between Dec/Dec futures is now -36, up from -34bps as the idea of rate cuts next year sits firmly on the table.
It also explains why the Tsy yield curve from 2-yr to 10-yr now sits at or below 4.90%, 35bps under the current fed funds rate.
With the long bond yielding 5.0%, and core CPI having broken the recent string of 0.3% prints, it seems only a matter of time before the whole curve displays a 4% handle

Stocks Prepare to RALLY -

0 Comments for:

Stocks all the Way Up
Futures: DOW Bounced up +42
Nasday up +7

Traders who trade in Equities, can Buy Dow Jones.

It looks for a Rally today for it

Cheerz.

More Datas to come

0 Comments for:

13:15 GMT

Watch for Industrial Production MOM Expected - 0.5%
Capacity Utilization Expected 82.6%

Traders waiting for this as well, to lead them a Correct Path.

However, CPI lead for USD weakness.

Shall Advice further.

Interesting Market Reaction

0 Comments for:

Core CPI out 0.2%

CPI is a figure which everyone watches.

USD is slightly weaker.
Shall wait 30 minutes to see how Market reacts

EUR/USD entered in Profits - Shall Close in few minutes, in Profits
USD/JPY - Not entered yet, didnt touch the level.

Though Very Bad Figures for USD.

Everything going the way we decided. Nice. And thanks for Quicky E-mails by All traders/Investors.
Appreciated.

Shall Advice further.

20 Minutes to go for Figures to come.

0 Comments for:

20 minutes to go for the figures to come.

Are you prepared?
You should be ready.. As we have given all information to guide.

Best Of Luck

Any Questions, E-mail directly at owaissivany@yahoo.co.uk or Leave comments, Any of our analysis team will answer you Quickly

Cheers, Best Of Luck

Equities Reaction - during CPI release

0 Comments for:

How will Stocks will react ?

If we see 0.3 CPI mom
We could see Stocks moving very Choppy. And shall wont push Stock much lower, as it shall meet the previous figure.
If we see 0.4% and Higher, we could see Stocks giving a Heavy Downside push, as the market doesnt expect such figure. And you can Sell in Any temporary retracements along the way down.

If we see 0.2% we could see EU Indices/US Futures to build on yesterdays Gains.

If we see 0.1%, We could see a Heavy PUSH. Just Buy in any Level. It will be Sky rocketing.

Forex Trade Idea: EUR/USD

0 Comments for:

Forex Trade Idea
EUR/USD - Again we trade this today

If Core CPI Mom 0.3% or Above - USD Stronger - Sell the break of 1.2755, Target around 1.2710.
0.2% - USD Slightly Weaker: Watch for direction after 30-45 minutes
0.1% or below - USD is Weak : Buy the break of 1.2808, target around 1.2890

Keep Stop orders TIGHT.

Forex Trade Idea: USD/JPY

0 Comments for:

Forex Trade Idea
USD/JPY - Again we trade this today

If Core CPI Mom 0.3% or Above - USD Stronger - Buy the break of 116.35, Target around 116.90
0.2% - USD Slightly Weaker: Watch for direction after 30-45 minutes
0.1% or below - USD is Weak : Sell the break of 115.80, target around 115.20/00

Keep Stop orders TIGHT.

Todays Figures discussion

0 Comments for:

Todays Figures are considered Heavy.
And Market will use them in order to fill in the FOMC's inflation side of the equation
With the Lower PPI , giving a nice suprise reading yesterday the market is anticipating
lowered inflation pressures in the US and the decreased probability of a rate hike in September.
Without Support from Continued Rated Increases, USD losses strength.

Mid-East Tension Updates

0 Comments for:

Reported comments from Lebanese Interior Minister Fatfat-

- Cease-fire is holding -

- Lebanon army may deploy in south on Thursday.

HEAVY MOVING DATAS COMING TODAY

0 Comments for:

Big Market Moving Datas coming today.
Which shall see Move in USD, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Stocks, Bonds, and other things.

We have a list of Data Flowing out at 12:30 GMT

CPI MoM (US) - Exp 0.4%
CPI Ex. Food & Energy MoM (US) - 0.3%
CPI Core Index SA (US)
Housing Starts (US) - 1810K
Building Permits (US) - 1840K

Thats not it - However the Above are the FEW OF THE MAJOR ONES.
We then have at 13:15 GMT - just 45 minutes after the release of above.


Industrial Production MoM (US) - Exp - 0.5%
Capacity Utilization (US) - Exp - 82.6%


For Energy Traders, we have the Following below data coming out at 14:30 GMT

DOE Crude (US) - Prev : -1114K
DOE Gasoline (US) - Prev: -3209K
DOE Distillate (US) - Prev: -136K
DOE Refinery (US) - Exp: 0.45%

Iran Updates

0 Comments for:

Iran ready to discuss atomic research suspension, according to AFP, which is citing foreign minister Mottaki.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Market looks freezed in Asia Afternoon.

0 Comments for:

The US dollar was little changed against the yen and euro in early afternoon trade in Asia as investors preferred to take a 'wait-and-see' approach ahead of tonight's key US July consumer inflation.

At 0340 GMT, the US dollar was at 116.02 yen, up from 115.99 yen in early trade here. The euro was flat at 1.2790 usd. Expectations for tonight's CPI data and further US interest rate hikes were pared back overnight after the release of lower-than-expected US producer inflation data.

Australian dollar will likely gain if core CPI data comes in below market expectations as this would support the case for the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate at 5.25 pct. Maintaining the Fed rate at this level should encourage buyers into the Aussie dollar.

IF CPI IN FAVOUR - GOLD RALLIES

0 Comments for:

Technically we see a Push Should come
But eyes are set today at CPI,
If CPI is in favour, we shall see a nice rally upwards.
655 to 620 was a nice kicking out for FUNDAMENTAL Support.

We shall Advice further.

NYMEX Crude Oil Technical Levels

0 Comments for:

CRUDE TECHS: Trend Line/Fibonacci Eyed $72.00

RES 4: $76.50 Daily high 10 Aug

RES 3: $74.75/80 21-day moving average & Daily high 11 Aug

RES 2: $74.30 5-day moving average

RES 1: $73.95 55-day moving average

LAST PRICE: $73.52

SUP 1: $72.60 Daily low 14 Aug

SUP 2: $72.00 Support line from 30 Nov 2005 & 76.4% of $79.86-$69.50

SUP 3: $71.45 Daily low 26 June

SUP 4: $69.50 Daily low 19 June

"Abandoned baby" of Island reversal pattern seen last week and subsequent break below the 100-day moving average has weaknened outlook for further weakness to $72.00, which is a trend line from Nov 30 and latter the 76.4% of $79.86-$69.50 move. The daily studies are still pointing lower from overbought territory, implying downside risks.

Gold is Making a Mood.

0 Comments for:

Gold is a Making a Mood, to push high or to do a mini correction.
Due to Data, we should see Dollar weakness as occuring right now, and Gold Rally

Gold/Silver, will play tricky today, it will act as going at reverse direction levels, but dont come in to hands of TRICKY games.

Have a Snap Shot in your Mind.

Data is Weak - PPI
USD is Weak
Gold should go up a little, due to USD weak.

The Mixed movements is occuring also due to Crude oil slight down.
If Crude Oil would be in GREEN SIGNS, we should have seen a Good neat push already in Gold.

Gold playing in 623 - 626 range right now.

If it gives a Neat Push Upwards, we shall see a nice good Bull run.

We shall Advice further.

Cheers.

Positions Closed with Profits.

0 Comments for:

Closed both EUR/USD and USD/JPY

Dollar weakness further due to TICS Data

0 Comments for:

Dollar has weakned due to TICS Data as well
European Equities Reveresed all the way back up

US Equities will rally upwards today as well

We expect Gold to push slight up as well
Due to Dollar weakness.

EUR/USD Entered as level mentioned earlier - IN PROFITS
USD/JPY Entered as level mentioned earlier - IN PROFITS.

Shall Advice further.

Cheers.

US Figures discuss

0 Comments for:

These US figures are kind of poison for the US rate outlook.
Empire Manufacturing really weak and showing that the FED was right to expect
a cooling economic activity from here.
The PPI figures are showing that inflationary pressures are not a big deal currently and that
the FED was doing the right thing when it didnt hike at the last meeting.
Good for fixed income and Stocks.
BAD FOR USD

USD will get weak today

0 Comments for:

USD will get weak today
Gold will push slight up
Data wasnt in Favour for strength

It was a SUPRISE today

Cheers.

EUR/USD Trade Key Idea.

0 Comments for:

EUR/USD trade Key - for the PPI Data at 12:30

PPI Core Above Expectations = Sell on the break 1.2700, Target 1.2650
PPI Core Below Expectations = Buy on the break of 1.2740, Target 1.2790
PPI Core inline with Forecast = watch out for swings.

USD/JPY Trade Key Update

0 Comments for:

USD/JPY trade Key - for the PPI Data at 12:30 GMT
We Assume USD/JPY react more in this Data, should the figures print below expectations
and market expect continued FED pause.

PPI Core Above Expectations = Buy on the break 116.75, Target 117.30
PPI Core Below Expectations = Sell on the break of116.30, Target 115.80
PPI Core inline with Forecast = watch out for swings.

Market has been STUCK

0 Comments for:

The Market has been stuck in very tight ranges in anticipation of todays PPI figures.
With the momentum building thorugh Asia And Europe Session, the release of these figures
could lead to significant volatility.
The primary focus will be on Core PPI (MoM), as a guide for tommorrows CPI figures.

Metals Futures Update

0 Comments for:

Precious metals weakness continue and - as expected- the 635 support was tested for Gold. No major change from yesterday and as long we do not have a close above the 640 level, we keep our targets at 627 and 615 to be reached in the next few days.

Silver picture is looking a bit brighter but still has to break the 12.35 level to reach 13.00 resistance, without a daily close above this level, the mood is still bearish with 11.20 as downside target. It is interesting to look at the Silver ETF holdings since its inception as there is a correlation between the silver price and level of holdings. Since July 31st there have been four major gains totalizing 4.5Moz which is a positive sign for near term price action.

Gold still around 100 MA - daily Chart.

0 Comments for:

Gold still around 100 MA - Daily Chart.
And still remains to trade at the same range at 625 - 630 levels.

Today US Data will lead the direction, as market awaits for PPI coming out at 12:30 GMT

Technically gold is Bull, if we see a Green Bar soon today, We will see a Nice Wave for BULL trend.

Keep Eyes at 622/623 level - Crossing that level, REVERSE GOLD
yesterday it hit 633, and Whoop, Bounced up. So our target was right.

Keep Eyes at 634 and 637 level, crossing that Bull picture shall Emerge.

If 637 level is crossed we will see a Nice Bull, due to MA100 lies that level, and shall make a small base at that level..

We shall see how data reacts today.

Since 2 ASIAN Morning, market is same.

Monday, August 14, 2006

US Dollar slightly lower in Asian Trade

0 Comments for:

The US dollar drifted slightly lower in early Asian trade while keeping in snug ranges as the market waited for a slew of US data due over the next few days to help determine near-term direction for the currency.
The dollar eased slightly this morning in Asia but stayed well within recent ranges while sentiment remained broadly supportive.

Euro-dollar marked an initial high of $1.2735 before dipping to $1.2696, where it then ran into moderate buying, reportedly placed between $1.2680 and $1.2710. The pair then headed north, again, eventually hitting a $1.2740 high, a touch above its New York close of $1.2720-22.

Further reactions will be dependant after the release of PPI today. 12:30 GMT

Crude Oil Update

0 Comments for:

Prices were lower in Asian trade after a UN-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon went into effect and news that BP would maintain half of its output in Alaska. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for September delivery, was last traded down $0.23 at $73.30 a barrel from its close of $73.53 in the US overnight.

GOLD UPDATE

0 Comments for:

Gold Handles its Range around the level of MA100 - Daily Chart.
Crossing 623 level, will push it down to 615 area.
However, Monday gold was Playing in range of $5-7 up and down.
Today the market will wait for PPI releasing today.
And if Gold stands its level at the same range of MA100, and Mantains a solid Support we could see a Push higher.

This Bear ride was driven due to Slight Easing of the Lebanon - Israel Crisis. However we have Iran Discussions coming up in around 10 days. That could be a Lifting if such any Tension messages are pass around.

We mentioned earlier, Gold has Cut off its Fundamental RIDING Support, bringing it to around 625 level from 655 range level.

Today Asia Morning, we are right now seeing in our Screens, the Money movements / trades for Gold occuring in ASIA right now is very Low.
It expects as market is waiting for PPI today.
We could see the same Movement occuring in Asia as Monday.

Not much Happening for the moment.

Shall Advice further.

Forex Asia Market Update - JPY

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PM Koizumi is visiting the Yasukuni Shrine today but his visit is unlikely to trigger a further deterioration in China-Japan relation since his term ends in September.

More important will be the attitude of Koizumi's replacement to the controversial shrine. Shinzo Abe is the clear favourite to win the presidential elections in September, and his communication on policy suggests that he will also continue to visit the shrine as PM.

The BOJ will release minutes to July 13, 14 board meeting, where the BOJ opted to end ZIRP. The minutes are unlikely to be market moving since many BOJ board members have already discussed their views with the market since then.

Neutral on JPY for now as its said that the currency is still being used for short-term financing and geo-political tensions surrounding Iran will keep oil elevated for now.

Forex market Update - US Dollar

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The US dollar was generally stronger across the board but particularly against AUD and NZD. The UN-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah looks to have held so far and contributed to lower oil prices, with benchmark Nymex crude futures down by around $1 to US$73.33/bbl.

However, geopolitical tensions will likely persist until after Aug. 22, which is when Iran has agreed to respond to international pressure regarding its uranium enrichment program.

US 2 and 10-year yields are higher by 3-4 bp while equity market are slightly firmer, with the S&P500 up by 0.1%.

There was little in the way of economic data overnight and instead the market will look ahead to PPI released today and CPI released tomorrow. In light of the strong retail sales last week, any upside surprises on inflation or activity data this week could put further pressure on USD shorts.

IMM positioning data released on Friday showed a rise in speculative short-USD positions in the week to last Tuesday, with long EUR positions rising to a record 121.8k, up from 97.9k in the previous week.

Looking ahead for today we have PPI at 1230 GMT, the TIC report for June is due at 1300 GMT.

Gold trading at same levels since ASIA MORNING

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Gold trading since Asia Morning at 625 - 630
NY traders made the price up from 625 to 627 (right now trading)

As the Mid-East tensions ease a little, we saw a Huge Drop back, and we did warn earlier, about such things.

However, we shall keep eyes at 623 level, crossing that we shall see 615 next support, if thats crossed 603 level is Welcomed Again.

Crossing above 631 level, we shall see slight up movement.

However, Crude Oil Fall, and USD strength, gave a Major Draw Back to Gold/Silver as well.

Technically speaking, we see this to be a mini-correction in technical words,
As its forming a Zig Zag Bullish Pattern (LONG TERM PRESPECTIVE)
If you look in the daily Chart, you can easily recognize it...

Gold Futures Update

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Gold Futures trading around 640 level this morning after the last two days strong sell-off
Below 645/48 level zone the Channel looks BEARISH with 635 as first support.

Forex market Update - US Dollar

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The greenback continued to be supported by the much higher then expected Advanced Retail Sales figure, which printed at a massive 1.4% vs. 0.9%.

The renewed strength, after a downwardly revised decline of 0.4% in June, was broad based across all categorizes.

Perhaps the most interesting figure, and the one which most of the USD rally has been based, is the core retail sales. This number excludes transportation, gasoline and construction materials and is directly related to estimates of consumer spending in GDP.

Traders bid USD on the basis that US growth might not be slowing as the FED had anticipated and further tightening would be warranted. The Fed Fund rates estimates jumped to 37% from 25% on this data.

Now that we are starting to see the growth side of the FOMC equation, this week traders will be focused on inflation i.e PPI and CPI.

There are no US releases today.

Busy Week for UK Markets

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UK markets have a busy week of economic data which may give more shape to the interest rate outlook. Producer prices figures are due Monday, consumer prices set for Tuesday, average earnings and BoE policy minutes are due Wednesday, retail sales numbers are due Thursday, and public finance data is released Friday.

Gold Trading very tight

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Gold and Silver Playing in Very tight ranges today.
No such movement happening.,
In europe Market is seeing a Very tight up and down.
We shall see how NY react.

We shall Advice further.

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Tokyo Stock Exchange tickers not Updating

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As we hear, Tokyo Stock Exchange tickers are not working, with prices not updating.

Crude Oil Update

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Prices declined in Asia on hopes that a UN-brokered truce and the eventual deployment of an international peacekeeping force in Lebanon will end the conflict there. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in September, was last at $73.65 a barrel, down $0.70 from its close of $74.35 in the US Friday.

Gold is trading in very Tight ranges, as well as Silver.
Not much movement occuring, as talks going on, whether to push the gold up or Bring it little down due to Fundamental Aspects easing.
We shall see how Europe and NY react on this.

Middle East tensions

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A U.N.-brokered ceasefire designed to end the month-long conflict between Israel and Hizbullah takes effect at 0500 GMT today.
Since the crisis are slowly slowly being pressurised to come to and end.
Gold/Silver dropped Quickly due to FUNDAMENTAL things were slowly easing.
And Tipped Down towards the price, where it started it Bull Push (during Fundamental un-easiness)

Friday, August 11, 2006

Another reason for US Dollar lift

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Getting a slight lift as traders note reports that there will be no imminent ceasefire bewteen Israel/Lebanon. That talk said to have hurt stocks around the midday hour also.

And we did warn Earlier, that Gold is Supported 40/45% Fundamentally, And as we mentioned earlier, When a War, terrorist attack or any sort of Attacks/Explosions occurs, it will be a Speed Up rally, when its over, Speed down rally.

However 628 level gold is building good support at the moment.

Currently moved up to 631

Building support

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626/628
Is growing the Support there.
Around 1 Hour 30 minutes left for Market to end for the week.

Shall play in around 627-632 range.

As we did mention earlier, Dollar will be in Strength all day today, And this is one of the reasons as well for a Pull Back in Gold

Bearish Bar Emerged for Gold

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Bearish Divergence emerged.
We see Gold to go further more down at 620/2 level shall be the Good Next level Support.
Crossing that, big Bearish Divergence

As we mentioned earlier, we will see a Pull back due to strong data, And we hope you did Close or Short sell.

Cheers.

Strong data - 636 Level kick for gold

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Strong data makes price 636 level right now.
We dont expect gold to go below 634 or Far chance 630.
As it will create a Heavy Bearish Divergence.
Gold has been trader for over around 2 Weeks at the same level range.
Very Little Liquidty in the market these days, due to most of the traders are still at side lines, who have made a mind to enter at 660 levels and such.
Many traders arent trading, who are in Vacations, enjoying the hard earned profits.

We could expect the same tight ranges this August, a very slow paced movements, Up and down the usual game.

FRIDAY a day of Proift take - as NY traders say

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We could Also expect PROFIT TAKING today as being end of week.
As Yesterday we saw Loads of SHORT Positions.
Traders might close (BUY) which shall lead upwards.

However, currently Market is directionless as there are two things which could be noted.
Whether to profit take current, or bring price down due to Strong figures (USD strength) or to profit take and make price up
Little buzz would go on, And we shall see how market reacts.

We shall Advice further.

Very Strong Figures

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Very Strong Figures, will likely be used to build the case for further FOMC tightening as they in no way suggest that private consumption is cooling like the FED expected in the last FOMC statement.
EUR/USD could slam towards 1.2660.
10 year treasury Notes close to breaking lower on this.

However, due to its friday, we could likely see USD strength towards end of the day.

Gold maintaing support currently, However, Due to Dollar Strength, there are chances for a Pull back.

Eyes on 638

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Eyes on 638 level, where support lies at
crossing that we shall see 635,
If 634/635 crossed we could move towards 628.

638 looks a good support, where the price isnt able to cross it as yet.

EUR/USD - Testing buyers around at 1.2720 levels

Dollar gets Boost after the Strong Data

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There will be a Slight Pullback in Gold Price again, as it looks like
Dollar got a Modest boost due to Strong data today.

EUR/USD coming down from 1.2796 levels to 1.2718
Gold trading at around 638 level current coming from 641 levels.

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